Tennis DFS plays for Saturday’s events (7/3)

Welcome to the third grand slam of the year! This time, we move to grass courts at the historic lawn of Wimbledon. After the 2020 grass-court season was canceled, it’s a wonderful sight to see tennis making its way back to Wimbledon. While names such as Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka won’t be in their respective fields, it should still be a terrific two weeks, particularly on the women’s side in what is shaping up to be a wide-open field. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic has a chance to tie Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer’s record 20 Grand Slam titles. Of course, grass courts are the quickest courts in the world, so expect short rallies, plenty of aces, and tiebreaks! 

This article will guide you through each slate, focusing on which players to build your core around, along with match predictions for the remainder of the slate and a power-ranked Cheat Sheet so you can see my confidence level in each tier. With that, let’s dive into today’s slate!

Angelique Kerber ($10,300)

After a bit of a scare against Sara Sorribes Tormo, Kerber should find an easier path to the finish line against Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Aside from Sasnovich’s Round of 16 run in 2018, she is 8-12 on the grass court surface in her career, with just one top-70 win coming against Kristina Mladenovic in 2016. She has actually never played Kerber before, so she may have a hard time picking up Kerber’s ball. I also expect Kerber to be all over Sasnovich’s serve, especially her second serve, neither of which is really much of a weapon. Sasnovich’s path this week includes the Serena Williams retirement and a win over Nao Hibino, neither of which are particularly impressive. Kerber’s ability to survive Sorribes Tormo’s relentless defending is a good sign for her ability to maintain rally tolerance. Sasnovich is 0-7 against opponents with a UTR above 12.50 in the last 52 weeks. With Kerber currently maintaining a 12.69 UTR (12.75 in the last three months), signs point to the German continuing her run towards another Wimbledon title.

Alexander Bublik ($7,400)

I’ve gone back and forth on Bublik and Auger-Aliassime as the core value play, but the bottom line is Auger-Aliassime offers a little more variance against Kyrgios in a match that is fair to expect multiple tiebreaks. Bublik has a game built for grass courts, and it’s really a matter of whether he cares on any given day. In a grand slam, you best believe Bublik will get up for any match, but the fear of Bublik quitting on himself if down two sets absolutely still exists. Hubert Hurkacz handled Marcos Giron well in a match many believed the American was primed for an upset. Giron, however, does not have as big and good a serve as Bublik, which is something I believe will change the dynamic of Hurkacz’s approach and ability to pressure his opponent from the baseline. Bublik had a ridiculous 34 aces in three sets against Grigor Dimitrov, but adding 10 double faults killed his ceiling. That is yet another negative about Bublik as a DFS play, but if he’s hitting his ace ceiling, it simply cancels the two out. If Bublik continues serving the way he has through two rounds, Hurkacz is going to need a peak service performance himself to stay in the match.

Other match predictions

(Sets in parentheses)

• Zverev over Fritz (3): Biggest serve Fritz will see this week, and while he’s seen two big ball-strikers, his court time should finally catch up to him here.

• Berrettini over Bedene (3): He’s the best grass-court player on the planet not named Novak Djokovic.

• Medvedev over Cilic (4): I believe Medvedev may find some trouble against Cilic’s serve and forehand, and to be quite honest, Cilic is live for an upset here. In MME, I definitely want my fair share of Medvedev, as his ceiling is a straight-set blowout, but definitely hedge some builds with Cilic, who has shown over the last month he most definitely has the goods to beat someone of Medvedev’s caliber. 

• Barty over Siniakova (2): Health has been the only concern for Barty, and her thigh seems fine to this point. She’s safe to use.

• Juvan over Gauff (3): We know plenty about Gauff, but let’s try to remember Kaja Juvan is a former girls doubles champion at Wimbledon, took a set off Serena Williams on Centre Court, and has now taken out Belinda Bencic, who had been coming off a grass court final in the lead-in events. This is a capable grass court player, and I find some value in her at this price in tournaments. 

• Ostapenko over Tomljanovic (3): I always worry about Ostapenko’s margin when it comes to backing her, but she’s in excellent form at the moment, so there’s a bit more safety in her than what we’ve become accustomed to over the last couple years. That said, her serve is always a risk to disappear for long stretches, and with the way Tomljanovic has played in the last couple weeks, I think this may go three sets.

• Federer over Norrie (4): Federer struggled a bit against Adrian Mannarino, but the good news against Norrie is that he has already seen a lefty, so perhaps he won’t need much time to make adjustments. Norrie’s serve will definitely create more problems than Mannarino’s did, but Federer has historically been a terrific return player on grass, and while it’s possible Norrie steals a set, I expect Federer to get the job done here.

• Sonego over Duckworth (4)

• Raducanu over Cirstea (3): Raducanu has been praised by numerous top-tier players on the WTA circuit this week. Finally, people are learning that she is simply a good young player. She struggled against Harriet Dart in Nottingham, but that was understandable, as she has hardly played since pre restart, finishing her studies in what is generally an important academic year in the UK for her age. She’s now back to playing full-time, and her game has really taken a leap forward. The win over Marketa Vondrousova represented the best win of her young career, and she did it in an impressive fashion. She has all the necessary tools and is showing an improved serve from the last time she really played professionally in 2019. Cirstea isn’t the best grass-court player, so I am liking the value of Raducanu here once again, who has shown she is quite comfortable on the surface.

• Badosa over Linette (3)

• Thompson over Ivashka (5)

• Sevastova over Krejcikova (3)

• Muchova over Pavlyuchenkova (3): Muchova moves better, which I believe gives her a slight edge in the matchup on this surface. Both are pretty big ball-strikers, however, and Pavlyuchenkova is capable of hitting anyone off the court in quicker conditions. Muchova, however, should offer a little more consistency.

• Auger-Aliassime over Kyrgios (5): Long story short, this has the makings of multiple tiebreaks, and potentially needing a tiebreak at 12-12 should they reach a fifth set. If the weather cooperates and they aren’t forced to play under a closed roof, they may both flirt with 40 aces over five sets. 

Cheat sheet

(Listed in order of preference)

Top tier: Angelique Kerber, Matteo Berrettini, Ashleigh Barty, Roger Federer, Daniil Medvedev, Jelena Ostapenko
Mid-tier: Paula Badosa, Karolina Muchova, Lorenzo Sonego
Value tier: Alexander Bublik, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Emma Raducanu, Anastasija Sevastova, Jordan Thompson, Kaja Juvan
Hedges: Marin Cilic