NBA first look: DFS breakdown for July 3

After a tough loss in Game 5, can the Atlanta Hawks keep their season alive in Game 6? And with Giannis Antetokounmpo out for the Milwaukee Bucks, how has this NBA Eastern Conference Finals series and the DFS landscape changed? Let’s break it all down. 

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Bucks @ Hawks preview

ATL -2, total: 216

Milwaukee had an impressive victory in Game 5, despite being without two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. It looks like he’ll be out again for Game 6, which means everyone will have to step up. In Game 5, the usage was really spread out and while everyone expected Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday to lead that department, it was actually Bobby Portis (25.3%) and Brook Lopez (24.7%) who led this team in usage. Lopez was stellar, scoring 33 points, his first game all year long reaching the 30-point mark, and he did it without even hitting a single three-pointer. He saw a whopping 14 paint touches, way, way up from his season average of 4.0 per game. When Giannis is on the court, Lopez stands at the three-point line and waits for the pass after a drive to the basket. During the regular season, he averaged 3.4 spot-up points per game, while also sporting a 29% frequency rate off the play type. With Giannis sidelined, however, Milwaukee clearly will play through Lopez more in the post, while the rebounding chances are also much higher. Portis, meanwhile, has always been a high-usage player and took advantage of his extra opportunities Thursday. He entered the starting lineup and scored 22 points on 20 shots, while adding eight rebounds, three assists and three steals. Over the course of the season, Portis is posting a 37% rebounding rate with Giannis off the floor, while also averaging a strong 1.19 fantasy points per minute. It is really difficult to not just go right back to Portis and Lopez Saturday.

Meanwhile, Holiday and Middleton were also both fantastic last game. Holiday scored 25 points to go along with 13 assists and six rebounds, while Middleton posted a stat line of 26-8-13. The peripherals should be there for both players in Giannis’ absence, especially since they touched the ball 95 and 98 times, respectively, in Game 5. They essentially took turns running the offense, as Holiday’s 7.9 minutes of possession were just ahead of Middleton’s 7.4, while their average seconds per touch were 4.99 and 4.53, respectively. Both are obviously elite plays tonight and should continue to post strong numbers. Finally, we saw P.J. Tucker haul in 11 rebounds last game, which is entirely possible in Game 6 with Giannis likely sidelined. Just don’t expect much usage, which means you’ll likely need him to continue to grab rebounds. 

With Atlanta’s season on the line, it is hard to imagine Trae Young not playing, though he has been out the last two games with that foot injury. In his absence during that span, Lou Williams has entered the starting lineup at point guard, logging 35 minutes in both contests. During that span he has scored 41.7 and 26.5 fantasy points, however, it has been Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari who have led the Hawks in usage rate (26.4, 26.3%). Over the last two games, Bogdanovic has attempted 19 and 22 shots, including an insane 30 three-pointers. That gives him a serious ceiling on a site like DraftKings, especially if Young can’t return to the lineup. The issue, however, is that with his price jumping up to $8,800 on DK, you can’t play him if Young is active. Clint Capela is very interesting here. He was active last game after suffering an eye injury, though he played just 21 minutes. Capela benefits from having Young on the floor, as he gets so many easy looks on offense. And if Lopez continues to play closer to the basket, that means Capela is also closer to the basket, giving him as much rebounding upside as anyone in basketball, really. I also don’t mind taking a shot on Kevin Huerter, who hasn’t been as involved offensively this series, failing to reach double-digit points in two of his last four games. However, he’s recorded seven assists in three straight games and Milwaukee will surely give it up from beyond the arc. We obviously need to keep track of the news from Atlanta over the course of the day, but I’d be pretty surprised if Young didn’t at least try to play here.