Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
I’m going to be writing up my thoughts on single-entry GPP strategy for these big slates. I’m going to work in conjunction with the ownership projections and point projections right here on our site. I am pretty much strictly playing on DraftKings these days, so keep that in mind. If there is a large price discrepancy, that may change my read if I were to be playing FanDuel. Also, there may be circumstances where a chalky pitcher is just that much chalkier due to FD only using one pitcher, so keep that in mind as well.
Generally, I’m paying up for pitching. Aces are still getting their run, but these SP4 and SP5 types we’d been looking to in the past no longer have much of a shot at a solid six innings. Pair that with DKs pricing algo discounting top pitching, and there rarely is a situation not worth spending up at both pitchers.
Pitching
There are few solid options on this slate to audit, so I will start at the top. Max Scherzer has a tough matchup and while he definitely is a better strikeout pitcher than Lance Lynn, he shouldn’t be expected to offer much more production than Lance Lynn, who gets a much better matchup and is cheaper. Since we have such consolidated chalk on offense, I am going to not try and get cute with SP1 and just roll with Lynn, and I’ll pivot with bats.
The middle ground is where I don’t think anyone will go, and that leads me to Lance McCullers. He struggles with walks but faces the lowest walk rate vs. RHP in all of baseball in the Indians. I like his chances at a big game here, and at 10% ownership.
I can’t argue against Drew Smyly facing the Marlins, as much as I wanted to recommend pivoting to Logan Gilbert. As Kyle Murray’s projections show, the difference in ownership between the two isn’t big enough that I want to take a stand there. Both guys are great plays, but I won’t be going there.
Hitting
The Cardinals figure to be the most popular stack on the slate by a decent enough margin. It isn’t like I don’t think they’ll play well, it’s just that 28 teams playing means nobody really has a 35% chance of going crazy. If I were to mix in some Cardinals, I’d stay away from the top dollar-per-point plays. Remember, Paul DeJong still sucks. Paul Goldschmidt does not.
As for a real edge on the slate, I’d look to the Angels offense. Only Chi Chi González has been hit harder than Keegan Akin over the last three weeks, and the Angels offense has an ISO of .256 over the last week.
I am scrambling a bit here — J.A. Happ might be the other worst pitcher on the slate, I do not mind the hitting environment in KC. Fire up those Royals!
