NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
This was probably one of the quietest offseasons in the NHL in quite some time. There weren’t a lot of big-name free agents available and most of the players who signed with other teams don’t have any fantasy appeal.
However, we did see a few trades which involved a few big names such as Erik Karlsson, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alex DeBrincat. We also saw a couple of fantasy favorites of mine over the years get released from their respective teams, including Matt Duchene and Blake Wheeler.
The goal here is to catch you up on all of the offseason trades and signings. Below is a list of most of the players who switched teams and they are ranked in order of fantasy relevance. Some players won’t see their value change at all on their new team, while others have seen an increase or decrease in their stock.
Fantasy Hockey Rankings: https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-rankings
Targets: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-top-targets
Sleepers: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-sleepers
Breakouts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-breakouts
Busts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-busts
High Stakes Strategy: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-high-stakes-draft-strategy
Best Ball: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-best-ball-strategy
2023-2024 Fantasy Hockey Old Faces, New Places
Erik Karlsson, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
Karlsson led all NHL defensemen with 101 points last season, 26 more than the next closest DEF, and he finished 11th overall in scoring. He became just the sixth defenseman to reach the century mark and the first since Brian Leetch in 1991-92. It was truly a special season for the 32-year-old, especially given the fact the San Jose Sharks were one of the worst teams in the league last season and they sold at the deadline. They also sold high on Karlsson and shipped him to the Pittsburgh Penguins. It’s easy to think Karlsson could have a better season this year because he’s on a better team and he’s surrounded by skilled players such as Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Evgeni Malkin. However, that’s not always the case. His minutes may come down a touch, he won’t be asked to do as much as he was in SJ, and he’ll likely share PP1 duties with Kris Letang. Remember when Karlsson joined the Sharks from the Sens and he split time on the first power play with Brent Burns? Both Karlsson and Burns were fantasy busts that season as they cut into each other’s usage rates from previous seasons. I could see that happening here, but not to the point where Karlsson won’t be a top five defenseman. I’d say he’s flirting with 80-85 points and not 100. That would still be a very good season for the vet.
Alex DeBrincat, W, Detroit Red Wings
Things didn’t really work out for DeBrincat in Ottawa — I’d like to say I was surprised, but I thought it was a risky acquisition by the Senators. They tried to make it work with DeBrincat, but they ultimately had to trade him to the Red Wings. He still had a good season with Ottawa (27 goals and 66 points), but it was a drop-off from the year before and his 27 goals were the second fewest he’s scored in six seasons. He’s still a volume shooter with 40-goal upside, and he’ll be locked in on the first line and first PP in Detroit, which wasn’t always the case in Ottawa.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW, Los Angeles Kings
PLD had two very good seasons in Winnipeg that saw him score 28 and 27 goals. He reached 60 points for the second and third time in his career, and his 63 points and 23 power play points last season were the most he’s ever had. He lived in the 18-minute range in the Peg, which is more than he received in Columbus. Now in Los Angeles, PLD will be the team’s third center, and although he’ll likely play with Kevin Fiala — the Kings’ second-best winger — he’ll play behind Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault. Dubois has more skill and a higher offensive ceiling than Danault, but Danault is one of the best defensive centers in the game, so I can’t imagine a big decrease in ice time for him. This is a great trade for the Kings, as they might be the deepest team in the league down the middle of the ice, it’s just not the best for fantasy. Dubois’ numbers may take a bit of a dip, especially on the PP as he’s opened up training camp on the second power play unit.
Taylor Hall, LW, Chicago Blackhawks
I love this landing spot for the former Hart Trophy winner. Hall was too good to play on the third line and second line, but the Bruins were loaded on offense. The Blackhawks are far from loaded up front, or anywhere really, but they do have the number one overall pick Connor Bedard who will turn heads from the minute the puck drops. Hall should play with Bedard for most of the season and I guarantee he’ll log more ice than the 15 minutes per game he played last season. Look for Hall to live in the 19- to 20-minute range and don’t forget he likes to shoot the puck. He’s a great target in the middle to late rounds of drafts. He’ll probably be one of our favorites to target in the shot prop game.
Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets
Vilardi is one of the best-kept secrets in the NHL and he’s bound for a breakout in Winnipeg. With PLD and Blake Wheeler out of town, Vilardi who played on the third line in Los Angeles, will get a chance to play in the top six and maybe the first line in Winnipeg. If he gets a chance to skate with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, he’ll be a must-own player. I fully believe he’ll get that chance. Listed as a C, but he’ll get winger eligibility. He’ll also top the 15 minutes he played last season and the nine power play points he picked up. Oh, and he’s a good bet to top his career-high 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games last season. The Jets made out alright in this Pierre-Luc Dubois trade and I expect Vilardi to become a fan favorite right away.
Matt Duchene, C/RW, Dallas Stars
Duchene wasn’t able to repeat his career season in 2021-22 which saw him score 43 goals and finish with 86 points, so the Predators released him. Duchene still had a solid season last year as he scored 22 goals and picked up 56 points. It was the seventh time in his career he hit the 20-goal mark. He’s not going to play heavy minutes in Dallas, but he’ll open up with Tyler Seguin who had a nice bounce back last year. He could also move up the lineup and find himself on the first power play at times. The Stars are loaded up front and he’ll fit in nicely.
Blake Wheeler, RW, New York Rangers
Like Duchene, Wheeler was surprisingly released and like Duchene, he landed on a better team. He won’t see a big uptick in New York, but I expect him to put up similar numbers and Wheeler isn’t far removed from being a solid fantasy option. He touches a lot of categories and I believe the change in scenery could spark his game. I wouldn’t buy any report that has him on the third line. I believe Alexis Lafreniere can take the next step, but I’m not sold on Kaapo Kakko. Wheeler Will play alongside either Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin, at 5v5 and on the power play. Scroll down your draft boards, because he’s buried.
Tyler Bertuzzi, W, Toronto Maple Leafs
Bertuzzi is a great get by the Maple Leafs, and I love the landing spot for the player. The winger had issues staying in the lineup last season, and when he was in the lineup with Detroit, he wasn’t really scoring (14 points in 29 games). When he was flipped to Boston, he immediately started scoring as he was surrounded by better players. The winger had 16 points in 21 regular season games and 10 in seven playoff games. Now in Toronto, Bertuzzi will either play with Auston Matthews or John Tavares. It’s doubtful he’ll get PP1 time, but it’s possible. Either way, the Leafs will be one of the highest-scoring teams in the NHL again this season and Bertuzzi will benefit from that. He has three 20-goal seasons on his NHL resume, and he scored 30 in 2021-22.
Michael Bunting, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Bunting has a real shot of playing on the Hurricanes’ first line with Sebastian Aho, but Rod Brind’Amour tends to shake his lines up pretty often. If he’s not producing or staying out of the box, he could move down the lineup pretty quickly. Having said that, Bunting has shown he can keep up with skilled players and he has 23 goals in each of his last two seasons. A slight downtick in the upside given the new environment, but worthy of a late-round pick.
Reilly Smith, W, Pittsburgh Penguins
Smith may just begin the season on the top line with Sidney Crosby, but that’ll only be for the first few games until Jake Guentzel returns. When the Pens’ left winger returns (mid-to-late October), Smith should keep a role inside the top six. Moving from Crosby to Evgeni Malkin is a solid consolation prize. Those two centers are better than any center he played with in Vegas. It’s also possible he clicks with Sid right away, which keeps him on his line, but on the other wing.
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Ottawa Senators
Tarasenko doesn’t have the same upside as Alex DeBrincat, but this is a decent landing spot for him and a solid consolation prize for the Sens. Tarasenko is past his prime, but he’ll still be surrounded by talented players at 5v5 and on the power play. The winger has seven 20-goal seasons on his resume, including six seasons with at least 30 and one with 40. He should be able to get to 25-30 goals and 200-plus shots, which keeps him relevant. Josh Norris and Tarasenko could be a sneaky best ball stack to consider.
Connor Brown, RW, Edmonton Oilers
I’ve been in a few drafts where Brown was reached on, but I get it. He’s expected to open up the season with Connor McDavid. You should want a piece of these Oilers and having exposure to McDavid or Leon Draisaitl can be a difference-maker. Having said that, Brown was limited to four games last season, and he’s had issues staying on the ice over the past couple of years. However, when he plays, he produces (two 20-goal seasons) and he has experience playing with McDavid. They were linemates for two seasons in 2012-14 with the OHL’s Erie Otters and they combined for 145 goals and 416 points. Brown had 73 goals and 197 of those points, so he did his part. Don’t get it twisted, 50-60 points would be a very strong season for the winger. It would also be a career best. He’s someone to think about in the back end of your draft, or a touch earlier in best ball formats.
Alex Killorn, W, Anaheim Ducks
Killorn was overpaid by the Ducks, and he’ll be overdrafted in fantasy. I wouldn’t touch him if he was available in the last round of a 20-round draft with 14 teams. OK, maybe that’s a bit harsh considering he has 52 goals and 123 points in his last two seasons. I like Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry and Mason McTavish as much as everyone else, but they aren’t Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point or Steven Stamkos. Killorn will have moments, and he’ll play in all situations, but he won’t produce consistently in Anaheim.
Kevin Hayes, C, St. Louis Blues
I disliked the contract the Philadelphia Flyers handed out to Kevin Hayes from day 1. $7M for a player who had never hit the 50-point mark. Well, he managed to register a career-high 54 points, 16 power play points and 209 shots over 81 games last season. That wasn’t enough for Philadelphia to keep him around as the Blues took a flyer on him this summer. He’s unlikely to get the same kind of minutes with the Blues, but St. Louis is a better environment for the center. If he gets Jordan Kyrou or Jakub Vrana on his line at any time, he’ll become fantasy-relevant in deep leagues.
Jonathan Drouin, LW, Colorado Avalanche
Drouin was a huge disappointment in Montreal, but he has a new life in Colorado with a former teammate.
I’m not saying he’ll keep pace with his old buddy Nathan MacKinnon, but I am saying I watched a lot of these two live in Halifax and they were awesome together. I expect Drouin to be given a chance to play with Nate at 5v5 and on the power play. I don’t expect to see Gabriel Landeskog again this season, which gives the former Hab a chance to play heavier minutes than he did in Montreal. Drouin has the speed and playmaking ability to stick too.
Stock Up
Tyler Toffoli, W, NJ
Gustav Nyquist, LW, NSH
Sean Durzi, D, ARI
Stock Down
Max Domi, C/LW, TOR
Jason Zucker, LW, ARI
J.T. Compher, W, DET
Tony DeAngelo, D, CAR
Dimitry Orlov, D, CAR
No Change
Ryan O’Reilly, C, NSH
Evan Rodrigues, C/LW, FLA
Mike Hoffman, LW, SJ
John Klingberg, D, TOR
Jeff Petry, D, DET
