Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Below you’ll see a few fantasy hockey busts to avoid in your 2022-23 NHL drafts. I tried to highlight players who I felt were going too early in drafts. I really like some of the players listed below and think they can have strong seasons, but I don’t think they’ll live up to their ADP.
You could make a case for anyone to be a fantasy hockey bust, but I tried to keep things simple. Some of the reasons to fade these particular players in drafts have to do with injuries, old age, regression, or new environments that have changed their outlook.
It’s important to keep in mind the scoring settings of your league. Don’t confuse real life with fantasy. Quinn Hughes is a fantastic target in leagues with just goals and assists, but you’d be surprised to hear where he finished in leagues with hits, blocks and shots.
Fantasy Hockey Rankings: https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-rankings
Targets: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-top-targets
Sleepers: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-sleepers
Breakouts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-breakouts
Busts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-busts
Old Faces, New Places: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-old-faces-new-places
High Stakes Strategy: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-high-stakes-draft-strategy
Best Ball: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-best-ball-strategy
2023-2024 Fantasy Hockey Busts
Brad Marchand, LW, Boston Bruins
The Bruins’ newest captain has been a strong fantasy asset for years, but there are reasons to be concerned. Let’s start with the departure of his longtime center Patrice Bergeron, who retired in the offseason. Boston’s second-line center David Krejci, who was a playmaker on the first power play, also retired. Boston will take a step back offensively this season and I saw that in Marchand’s game last year. 67 points in 73 games is a strong showing, but it’s the fewest points he’s had since 2015-16. I’m not sure he’ll hit the 70-point mark and he’s going ahead of players who I think will. There are draft sites out there that have him as a top-40 pick ahead of Kyle Conner, Timo Meier, Alex Tuch, Clayton Keller and J.T. Miller.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW, Los Angeles Kings
PLD had two very good seasons in Winnipeg that saw him score 28 and 27 goals. He reached 60 points for the second and third time in his career, and his 63 points and 23 power play points last season were the most he’s ever had. He lived in the 18-minute range in the Peg, which is more than he received in Columbus. Now in Los Angeles, PLD will be the team’s third center, and although he’ll likely play with Kevin Fiala — the Kings’ second-best winger — he’ll play behind Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault. Dubois has more skill and a higher offensive ceiling than Danault, but Danault is one of the best defensive centers in the game, so I can’t imagine a big decrease in ice time for him. This is a great trade for the Kings, as they might be the deepest team in the league down the middle of the ice, it’s just not the best for fantasy. Dubois’ numbers may take a bit of a dip, especially on the PP as he’s opened up training camp on the second power play unit. Ultimately, PLD is going a tad earlier in redraft leagues.
Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Mark Stone is one hell of a player, and he’s still regarded as one of the better two-way players in the game. There’s really no question about that. Unfortunately, his game doesn’t really translate to fantasy hockey, and he’s missed several games over the past few years. He played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season, but he’s been limited to 43 and 37 games over the last two seasons. It’s remarkable to think he scored a hat trick in the Game 5 clinching Stanley Cup win with a broken wrist. It sounds like he’ll be ready to rock on opening night, but I have concerns about his back. On top of that, he doesn’t really shoot the puck.
Max Domi, C/LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Domi had an impressive 49 points in 60 games with Chicago before getting traded to Dallas, where he only had seven points in 20 games. In Chicago he played 18:18 per game, the most he’s ever played, but in Dallas, he only skated 16:11 per game. The Stars were loaded on offense, so he didn’t have a top-six role. The Maple Leafs are also loaded on offense, so Domi won’t get much time inside the top six and I don’t expect him to play on the first power play. He had a career-high 18 PPP with the Blackhawks and just one with the Stars. Great get for the Leafs but he won’t be fantasy-relevant unless something happens to their two top lines.
Quinn Hughes, D, Vancouver Canucks
This is where we have to separate fantasy from real life. Hughes is a phenomenal offensive defenseman who finished second at the position in assists (69) and tied for third in points (76) last year. He’s a player worthy of a top-10 selection at his position in formats that only count goals, assists, points and power play points as his 34 on the man advantage last year was tied for the most. However, in leagues with shots, hits and blocks he ranked as the 15th-best defenseman. In high stakes leagues, which award points for hits, shots and blocks, he finished 24th at the position and 34th in points per game. Although it’s nice to have a defenseman who can rack up points for you, especially on the power play, just know he may not return value and you’ll have to target others later in drafts to make up for what he doesn’t provide. Here’s a list of the top 12 fantasy hockey defensemen from last year in high stakes leagues, which may surprise you. Especially some of the names who didn’t make the top 12 after strong seasons. Again, great real-life player and an asset for you in certain formats, just know your settings.
Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins
Here’s another example of a player who is better in real life than fantasy. McAvoy is getting drafted as a top-10 defenseman yet again in 2023-24, but he’s never finished inside the top 10. In fact, he wasn’t even a top 100 skater in fantasy last season, which account for goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits and blocks. He didn’t even finish as the top defenseman on his team last season, Hampus Lindholm did. I’m not saying I’m into Lindholm, but he’s going nearly 125 picks later in drafts. As I mentioned before, the Bruins are going to take a step back offensively, especially on the power play. McAvoy has 52 and 56 points in back-to-back seasons, but he’s never had more than 10 goals, and he’s not a big shooter or hitter. I don’t think he’ll even finish inside the top 25 at DEF, because he didn’t last season. Overall, McAvoy is s top 10 DEF in the NHL, but fantasy can play tricks on you.
Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes
Burns’ 61 points in his first season with the Hurricanes were the most he had in a season since 2018-19. It still wasn’t good enough for a top-12 finish but he’s getting drafted as a borderline top-12 defenseman in 2023-24. The top spot on the power play should be his, but we could also see Dmitry Orlov and Tony DeAngelo get time on the first power play as well. Keep in mind, that Burns will be 39 years old in March.
Linus Ullmark, G, Boston Bruins
OK, now I just seem like a Boston hater here. I truly apologize for that, but I think it’s safe to say we’re going to see some regression from the Bruins this season. I mean, they’re coming off the best season ever in the NHL. Ullmark won the Vezina thanks to a career-best 40-6-1 record, 1.89 GAA and .938 SV%. He also finished as the top goalie in fantasy and fourth overall in standard formats. It was a historic season for him and everyone on the Bruins. This has nothing to do with Ullmark’s poor play in the playoffs, I truly just expect a step back from everyone in Boston this season. As for Jeremy Swayman (32nd-ranked player last season), there’s no reason he should be ranked as a top-10 goalie this season. He’s good enough to command 30+ starts, but there are much better options down the draft board. Poor Yahoo Sports, which has him ranked ahead of Filip Gustavsson, Juuse Saros and Ilya Samsonov.
Others to Fade
Evgeny Kuznetsov, WAS
Jamie Benn, DAL
Ryan O’Reilly, NSH
Mikael Backlund, CGY
William Karlsson, VGK
Tomas Hertl, SJ
Jason Zucker, ARI
Marcus Johansson, MIN
Brock Boeser, VAN
J.T. Compher, DET
T.J. Oshie, WAS
Thomas Chabot, OTT
Brady Skjei, CAR
Jeremy Swayman, BOS
Sergei Bobrosvky, FLA
Marc-Andre Fleury, MIN
