2023-2024 Fantasy Hockey Preview: Breakouts

Below is a list of fantasy hockey breakout candidates for the 2022-23 NHL season. A few of the players listed showed signs of breaking out in the past but weren’t consistent players in the fantasy hockey game. I believe we’ll see the following players not only take their game to the next level but become league winners across the fantasy hockey landscape. 

Check out the rest of the draft kit for sleepers and targets, who could easily be on the list below as well. Oh, and I’m on the “rookies can’t breakout” side, so you won’t see any rookies below. Keep an eye on the Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide for a rookie breakdown. Check sleepers and undervalued players as well!

Fantasy Hockey Rankings: https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-rankings

Targets: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-top-targets

Sleepers: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-sleepers

Busts: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-busts

Old Faces, New Places: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-preview-old-faces-new-places

High Stakes Strategy: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/fantasy-hockey-high-stakes-draft-strategy

Best Ball: https://ftnfantasy.com/nhl/2023-2024-fantasy-hockey-best-ball-strategy

2023-2024 Fantasy Hockey Breakouts

Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken 

Last year’s Rookie of the Year scored 24 goals and finished with 57 points in 80 games. You could see the potential in 2021-22 when he registered nine points in 10 games. He added another seven points in 14 playoff games in 2022-23 and logged nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game after just 16 per game in the first half of last season. There’s 30-goal upside in the second overall pick from 2021, and I expect to see it this season. 

Nicholas Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens

Suzuki scored a career-high 26 goals and 66 points last season, playing a personal-best 21:06 per game in what was his fourth season in the NHL. He did this over 82 games (the second straight season playing 82 games), and he did it on a brutal Canadiens team. Montreal will be bad again this season, but the hope is they can stay healthy as they led all teams with 751 man-games lost. If Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach, and Michael Matheson stay healthy, Suzuki could push 75-plus points. The Canadiens’ captain is quickly becoming one of the better two-way forwards in the NHL and he’ll be leaned on heavily again in year five. Suzuki doesn’t have 40-goal upside, but his linemate Caufield does. 

Owen Tippett, RW, Philadelphia Flyers

You can argue Tippett broke out last season, but I think he can take his game to another level. The winger is turning into one of my favorite touch em’ all targets and I’ve been grabbing a lot of shares.  Tippett scored a career-high 27 goals, 49 points and 12 play points (eight PPG) in his first full season with the Flyers. Over his 77 games, he also had a career-high 231 shots and 125 hits over 17 minutes per game. He came on strong in the second half of the season and he was rewarded with more ice time as he only averaged 15 minutes per game in his first 46 compared to 20 minutes per game in his final 31 (post-all-star). He scored 10 goals and picked up 17 points over his final 21 games. He was shooting everything and hitting everybody. My kind of player. First line and PP1 duties are a lock. 

Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets 

Gabriel Vilardi is one of the best kept secrets in the NHL, and he’s bound for a breakout in Winnipeg. With PLD and Blake Wheeler out of town, Vilardi, who played on the third line in Los Angeles, will get a chance to play in the top six and maybe the first line in Winnipeg. If he gets a chance to skate with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, he’ll be a must-own player. I fully believe he’ll get that chance. He’s listed as a C but will get winger eligibility. He’ll also top the 15 minutes he played last season and the nine power-play points he picked up. Oh, and he’s a good bet to top his career-high 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games last season. The Jets made out alright in this Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, and I expect Vilardi to become a fan favorite right away.

Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars 

Johnston scored 24 goals in his rookie season and finished with 41 points in 82 games. Johnston only has six points in 19 playoff games, but his line was very good, and he was among the leaders in expected goals for at 5v5 throughout the playoffs. He won’t crack the first power play but the Stars are loaded on offense and he may find himself with better wingers at 5v5 and on the second unit. 24 goals as a 19-year-old rookie is not something to take lightly, He has 30+ potential in his game already in year two.

Barrett Hayton, C, Arizona Coyotes

Hayton was a league-winner down the stretch of last season, and he’s getting looked over in drafts this season. Look, I love Logan Cooley just like everyone else, and he already has our attention (see below). However, Cooley is the team’s future No. 1 center. Hayton is Arizona’s No. 1 center right now, and he was amazing with Clayton Keller last season. The fifth overall pick from 2018 scored 19 goals, 42 points and 10 power play points. He also played a career-high 17:30, but his minutes increased with each month. He played 15 minutes per game over the first two months and 19 minutes per game in the final 32 games. Over those 32 games he scored 12 goals and picked up 26 points. Throughout this Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide, we’ve discussed Keller’s dominance at 5v5. This is a duo I don’t think you can split up. Draft Cooley ahead of Hayton in dynasty leagues and have shares in redraft, but Hayton is good!

Pavel Zacha, C, Boston Bruins 
Charlie Coyle, C, Boston Bruins 

Both Zacha and Coyle have some big skates to fill this season with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci no longer around, and although it’s hard to imagine them even flirting with the numbers Bergeron and Krejci put up, they should touch career highs. 

I’d expect Zacha to skate with David Pastrnak at 5v5, and he should get an opportunity to be on the first power play. Zacha had eight power play points last season, and he didn’t get much time on the first unit. He technically had a breakout season last year as he finished with a career-high 21 goals and 57 points. There’s room to grow this season and if anything, he’ll play more than he ever has. He’s more known for his playmaking ability, but Zacha has at least 15 goals in three straight seasons. 

Coyle should open up the season with Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk, which is great for his outlook. Coyle has been one of the better third line centers in the league over the past couple of seasons, but now it’s time to see what he can do with more responsibilities. The former Wild has 16 goals in back-to-back seasons and he had 44 and 45 points over those two seasons while averaging 16 minutes per game. We could see Coyle get a few more minutes on the PP, which could get him up to 18 MPG. 20 goals and 60 points would be career highs for the center and those are numbers he can hit.

Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres 

Mittelstadt finally showed us why the Sabres drafted him eighth overall in 2017 with a strong second half. Mitelstadt scored seven goals and had 28 points in his first 50 games last season, but he scored eight goals and had 31 points in 32 games after the All-Star break. He’s not much of a shooter, but he still found a way to score a career-high 15 goals last season on a respectable 11.1 shooting percentage. His 59 points more than doubled his career-best 25 set in 2018-19. These Sabres are going to light the lamp again this season and they have more than just a strong first line. 

Matias Maccelli, LW, Arizona Coyotes

Maccell had a very impressive rookie season, with 11 goals and 49 points in 64 games. The winger had 22 points in 32 games and played just over 14 minutes per game in the first half of the season, compared to 27 points over his final 32 games, while averaging 16 minutes per game. I wish he’d shoot more, but that may come, especially with a shot like this one in Arizona’s first preseason game this year.

Lukas Reichel, LW, Chicago Blackhawks 

Reichel may open up the season on the second line, but he could find himself on the wing with Connor Bedard as the season progresses. Taylor Hall and Tyler Johnson are slated to play with Bedard, but neither has the best track record when it comes to staying healthy, especially Johnson. Riechel has a ton of skill, which translated to the NHL pretty quickly. He scored seven goals and 15 points in 23 games last season.

Yegor Sharangovich, C, Calgary Flames 

Sharangovich had a disappointing 13 goals and 30 points in 75 games last season after lighting the lamp 24 times (46 points) in his sophomore season in 2021-22. He averaged 16 minutes per game in his first two seasons with the Devils, but only 14 per game last season. He lost his spot in the top six and the Devils flipped him to the Flames for Tyler Toffoli. It’s a big get for New Jersey and a fresh start for Sharangovich. He’ll get every opportunity to play big minutes for the Flames, either on the top line with Elias Lindholm or the second with Nazem Kadri. It’s a pick that won’t cost you a thing, but it could pay off in deeper formats.

Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers

Bouchard had three fewer points than his career-high 43 in 2021-22, but he took off when the Oilers traded Tyson Barrie. Bouchard picked up 19 of his 40 points in his final 21 games. Eight of those points came on the power play as he set a career high with 13 power play points in 2022-23. He was able to keep that pace in the playoffs with 17 points in 12 games. He scored four power play goals and finished with 15 points on the man advantage. So if we’re counting at home, that’s 23 of his final 36 points last season which came on the power play. It’s a pace that seems unsustainable and you’d like to see some more 5v5 production, but a spot on Edmonton’s first PP is extremely valuable as they operated at an NHL record 32.4 percent last season. Even if they finish sub-30%, Bouchard is headed for 60-plus points. He’s a shooter (20 goals in his last two years) as well, which gives him top-five upside at his position.

Sean Durzi, D, Arizona Coyotes 

Daily Faceoff has J.J. Moser and Juuso Valimaki on the power play for Arizona, but I’d be shocked if Durzi didn’t get a crack on the first unit. In fact, he was the quarterback on the first unit in Arizona’s first preseason game. Durzi’s 16 power play points last season were more than Moser and Valimaki had and Durzi played on the second unit in Los Angeles. The former Kings’ defenseman has 12 goals, 142 shots and 263 blocks through 136 games. He averaged 19 minutes in his rookie and sophomore season, and it’s a number he could top in his first season with the Coyotes. His defensive game isn’t great, but he has an offensive upside and it’s higher than his nine goals and 38 points from 2022-23.

Joonas Korpisalo, G, Ottawa Senators 

Korpisalo is throughout this entire guide as a breakout, sleeper, target and a player on a new team. I chose to include him in the breakout section as I expect a career season for the former Blue Jacket. Korpisalo rocked a solid .920 save percentage in his rookie year in 2015-16 and showed promise after, but he could never really put it together due to injuries, bad play in front of him and a timeshare in goal. That shouldn’t be the case here in Ottawa as the Sens paid him like a No. 1 goalie and they’re starving for some stability in net. The Senators structure isn’t the best, so I don’t think he’ll have a sub 3.00 GAA, but a .920 save percentage and north of 30 wins are what I expect. He was 7-3-1 with a .921 SV% and 2.13 GAA in 11 games with the Kings, who really should have hung onto him. 

Akira Schmid, G, New Jersey Devils 

Schmid is knocking on the door to be the No. 1 goalie on a Devils team with 50-win upside in 2023-24. Vitek Vanecek will likely open up as the starter after posting a career-best 33 wins, 2.45 GAA and .911 SV% across 52 games in his first season in New Jersey. However, Schmid rocked a .922 SV% and 2.13 GAA over 18 games where he went 9-5-2. He was also the better goalie in the playoffs for the Devils: .921 SV%, 2.33 GAA & 2 SO compared to .825 SV% & 4.64 GAA for Vanecek. Schmid’s .924 SV% at 5v5 ranked 16th among goalies with 700 minutes of ice time, ahead of Vanecek. 

Other Candidates

Trevor Zegras, ANA
Mason McTavish, ANA
Dawson Mercer, NJ
Drake Batherson, OTT
Kent Johnson, CBJ
Seth Jarvis, CAR
Kirill Marchenko, CBJ
Alexis Lafreniere, NYR
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, CAR
Quinton Byfield, LA
Michael Matheson, MTL
Rasmus Sandin, WAS
Owen Power, BUF
Jake Sanderson, OTT
Calen Addison, MIN
Cam York, PHI
Pheonix Copley, LA