NHL Best Bets for Thursday (1/9)
Kenneth Le
Things change so quickly in the fantasy football landscape each year, but especially at the running back position. Injuries happen, roles change, players change teams, making it fascinating to see the variance at the position from the previous year.
With the NFL regular season now over, let’s take a look back at some of the most noteworthy changes at the running back position in 2024 and what they mean for the future.
Check out our look at quarterbacks.
What Changed in 2024: Running Backs
Free Agent RBs Shine
Aging running backs are often devalued in fantasy football drafts, but especially veteran running backs changing teams. In the past, players that fit that mold have underwhelmed, however, 2024 was a change of pace. Saquon Barkley (Eagles), Derrick Henry (Ravens), Joe Mixon (Texans), Josh Jacobs (Packers) and Aaron Jones Sr. (Vikings) all switched teams this offseason, with all five running backs playing massive roles. Barkley and Henry both finished as top-five fantasy running backs, while Jacobs and Mixon tied for eighth in points per game. They combined to average 20.3 touches per game and 38.7% of the team touches. Of course, the 2024 free agent running back class was one of the best we have ever seen but it was nice to see massive roles and seasons from some of the top players in the league, despite the change of scenery.
James Cook Finds the End Zone
If you ever need a prime example of just how unpredictable touchdowns can be, look no further than the Buffalo Bills backfield. Cook, who has always been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, hadn’t quite reached the upper echelon of fantasy running backs due to his lack of touchdowns. In 2023, Cook found the end zone just two times on the ground, while adding four through the air.
In 2024, variance happened.
Cook scored a whopping 16 rushing touchdowns this season, the most in the NFL, while his 18 total touchdowns ranked second in the league. For years, Josh Allen has been limiting the ceiling of Buffalo running backs due to his presence at the goal line. In 2022-2023, Allen recorded 25 carries inside the 5-yard line, while Cook only saw four such carries during that span. However, in 2024, that number skyrocketed to 13, 10th most in the league. Allen fell to 10, how lowest in a season since 2021. Of course, the explosive plays were still there, as Cook ranked third in rushing touchdowns of 10-plus yards (5), but he also finally benefited from seeing high-value touches in an elite offense. Despite averaging just 15 touches per game this season, Cook enjoyed his best season, finishing as the RB11 in points per game (16.7) and RB8 in total points.
Tampa Bay’s Backfield Becomes a Committee
Each of the past two offseasons, a lot has been made of Rachaad White’s inefficiency running the football. And the concerns were valid. During the 2023 campaign, White posted the league’s third-lowest rushing success rate (30.1%), ranking bottom-15 in DVOA in both 2022 and 2023. But it didn’t matter too much because he had no competition for touches during that span, averaging 20 touches per game in 2023. And even when the Bucs drafted Bucky Irving this past spring, many believed he wouldn’t emerge as anything more than a change-of-pace back. But after each play and each week, Irving proved one thing to the Bucs and to fantasy players everywhere…
He can’t leave the field.
Irving wasn’t just the best rookie running back in 2024, but one of the best running backs period. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley were better in EPA per attempt than Irving (0.073), and his 3.5 yards after contact per attempt was the second-best mark in the league. His 56 avoided tackles ranked ninth, despite ranking 18th in the NFL in carries with 207. His shiftiness and elusiveness were on full display, as Irving performed a successful juke a league-leading 5.8% of the time. Bucky’s emergence led to Tampa Bay deploying a split backfield between the rookie and White, which really took shape following the team’s Week 11 bye. From then on, White logged 48.8% of the snaps and handled 13 touches per game to Irving’s 50% snap share and 18.9 touches per game. It is also worth noting that in Weeks 17 and 18, two must-win games for the Bucs, Irving out-touched White 45-7, as the rookie handled over 67% of the team’s rush attempts during that span. White remains a very good pass-catcher but after Irving’s emergence, it appears that might be the extent of his role in this offense going forward.
Irving, meanwhile, is on the rise.
| Tampa Bay RBs | |||
| Player | YAC/ATT | EPA/ATT | Avoided Tackle % |
| Bucky Irving | 3.5 | 0.073 | 27.1% |
| Rachaad White | 2.8 | -0.121 | 17.4% |
Jacksonville’s Backfield Becomes a Mess
I’ll admit it. Before the 2023 season, I was sold that Tank Bigsby would cut into Travis Etienne Jr.’s workload, making the Jacksonville backfield one to avoid. Ultimately, Bigsby was awful as a rookie, while Etienne logged 70% of the snaps and handled nearly 70% of the Jaguars’ rush attempts. Of course, I was a year early, as things changed this past season. Between Etienne’s struggles and Bigsby’s bounceback sophomore season, the Jacksonville backfield became a lot less clear in 2024. Etienne averaged 12.6 touches per game, around seven less than last year, while Bigsby was right behind him at 11.7 touches per game. Bigsby also finally emerged as the short-yardage option, as he outcarried Etienne 11-5 inside the 5-yard line. As a result, Etienne plummeted from the RB7 in fantasy to RB35.
