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Mike Randle
Every fantasy football draft season, we form a set of beliefs that guide our way through the year. I believe in this guy, I don’t like this strategy, I will plant my flag for this offense. If you don’t have a set of beliefs, you enter the draft and the season flailing.
But also, you have to be willing to adjust those when presented with new information.
So with the NFL regular season in our rearview mirror, this week and next we’ll be going position by position through what happened in 2024 to see what can inform our decisions going forward.
Today: Quarterback
What Changed in 2024: Quarterbacks
Guys Can Take Longer Than We Think to Develop
Geno Smith: Drafted in 2013, first topped 4,000 yards in 2022. Jared Goff: Drafted in 2016, left for dead, now three straight seasons of 4,400-plus yards. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold: Drafted in 2018, fantasy stars in 2024.
The biggest quarterback story in 2024 fantasy football is players realizing former potential we thought we saw out of them. Who knows how much credit goes to Dave Canales or Kevin O’Connell or coaching staffs, how much goes to proper surroundings, how much is just guys finally developing. But so many guys get dismissed as ever being contributors only to finally turn things around that we have to start considering that as an option.
Does that mean you should draft someone like (just to pick some names) Zach Wilson or Trey Lance or Kenny Pickett just in case one of them finds his way into relevance? No. But if someone like that finds his way into a Sam Darnold situation, a bridge quarterback who is suddenly a full-timer, or a Baker Mayfield, a flier starter for a team who lost a veteran, dismissing them as an also-ran is a bad call.
Beware the Injury Recovery, Even for All-Timers
Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins were both popular picks to make the playoffs for their teams entering 2024. After all, both theoretically had playoff-caliber rosters around them, and the last time we had seen them play, they were playoff-caliber quarterbacks. The problem, of course, is that we hadn’t seen Cousins since the middle of 2023, and other than a few snaps, we hadn’t seen Rodgers since 2022, with both missing significant time to Achilles tears. But that’s OK, they’re known quantities, they’ll be fine, right?
Nope!
Rodgers flirted with his career-high in interceptions while putting up his worst passer rating as a starter en route to a 5-12 finish. Cousins was benched and still set a career high in interceptions along with his lowest touchdown total as a starter, also reaching his lowest passer rating.
No big-name quarterback had an injury in 2024 as severe as Cousins’ and Rodgers’, but guys like Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence missed significant portions of the season, and while they very well might be fine in 2025 and beyond, it’s worth being at least a little aware of how they look next preseason before diving all the way back in.
Embrace the Youth
Jayden Daniels nearly set the rookie QB fantasy scoring record with 364.8 points, just shy of Cam Newton’s 370.3 in 2011. Bo Nix holds the No. 3 total, behind only Daniels, Newton and Justin Herbert. Even Caleb Williams, who had what can only be described as a disaster of a season, is in the top 12 all time.
Of the top 20 rookie fantasy scoring seasons in NFL history, only two — Newton and No. 20, Peyton Manning’s 1998 season — came before 2012. Yes, there are bad rookie classes — the less said about the Kenny Pickett-led 2022 crop, the better — but if a rookie comes in as an exciting prospect, it’s clear that we don’t need to be scared off just by the “rookie” moniker. If we expect a signal caller to be good, we can expect him to be good fast.
(Does this contradict the first point, about quarterbacks developing later? No! Invest in guys early, and if they let you down … don’t let that color your opinion on them permanently.)
Beware the Overhype
As a rookie, Baker Mayfield was the QB16 in fantasy despite missing two games, but he showed some huge performances and built a lot of excitement heading into the offseason, excitement that only grew when his team acquired Odell Beckham Jr. before the next season. That led to an ADP of QB4 the next year despite Mayfield only rushing for 131 yards as a rookie and, ultimately, a disappoint, as Mayfield was the QB19 in 2019.
As a rookie, C.J. Stroud was the QB11 in fantasy despite missing two games, but he showed some huge performances and built a lot of excitement heading into the offseason, excitement that only grew when his team acquired Stefon Diggs before the next season. That led to an ADP of QB5 the next year despite Stroud only rushing for 167 yards as a rookie and, ultimately, a disappoint, as Stroud was the QB18 in 2024.
I’ve been hitting on that parallel since some time in August, so the fact that it worked out (and made me look smart!) helps, but the point is: We as a drafting community love to buy into the excitement, even when a player — especially a rookie — hits his 90th percentile outcome, like Mayfield and Stroud did. When everything goes right, expecting it to go even-righter is a good way to be disappointed, particularly if it’s a quarterback who isn’t a ground threat.
For example: The aforementioned Bo Nix. He’s more of a runner than either of the rookies I mentioned above, but he’s not a true rushing quarterback, with 383 yards on the ground this year. He managed a top-eight fantasy finish that no one saw coming. But pay attention to the hype surrounding him heading into 2025, especially if — like the Browns and Texans did with Beckham and Diggs — the Broncos make a high-profile receiver addition this offseason. A Bo Nix who is a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2025 drafts? Sure, fine. A Bo Nix who costs you a top-six pick? Big warning signs. Steer clear.
