NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Call me old, but I liked the era of WR divas (in a fun way). Chad Johnson donning the golden jacket as a celebration. TO being TO. The Joe Horn cell phone. (Antonio Brown doesn’t count as “in a fun way.”)
But the years have made WRs slightly less fun — or have they? A.J. Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster got into a good Twitter spat post-Super Bowl, while Rashod Bateman chose a more interesting target: His own team.
I suppose this isn’t what I’m supposed to be writing about. This is supposed to be an article about what changed about WRs in 2022, so I guess I’ll start doing that. I’ll force my editor to keep the first two paragraphs by saying “in 2022, WRs started to be divas again!”
Here’s what else changed.
Check out the other entries in our What Changed series: QB | RB
Dominant WRs Don’t Need Dominant QBs
It obviously helps, but Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill absolutely obliterated the idea that WRs are too dependent on QBs. Neither of those players were expected to bust in fantasy (Adams was a late-first pick, Hill was a late-second), but we didn’t expect them to have no fall-off whatsoever.
A.J. Brown switched teams and still dominated – though his QB play was elite. Jerry Jeudy finished top-20 despite Russell Wilson turning into a bronco. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both finished in the top-20 (man, a lot of these have to do with Wilson…). Garrett Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Year despite whatever we’re calling the Jets QB situation.
I think a shifting mindset – at least for me – is that top-end WRs are very situation-agnostic. This may have been evident to other years ago when Allen Robinson was great in Jacksonville, but it really seemed to jump off the page in 2022. Like, did it really make sense for us to be drafting Lockett near WR50? At WR, betting on the talent just makes sense.
Christian Kirk, please accept my apology
In August, I called Kirk the worst pick you could make in Round 7 (crushed the rest of the article, though!). But it turns out he was actually one of the best choices you could have made in that round, as Kirk flourished as Jacksonville’s WR1 and finished as a top-12 fantasy WR and top-18 in PPG.
Kirk posted 84 catches for 1,108 yards and 8 TDs — all of which were career highs. The arrival of Calvin Ridley does make things a little more confusing for 2023, but Kirk will still be a weekly staple in your fantasy lineups.
Teammate WRs dominate again
For the first time since 2016, two pairs of teammate WRs finished in the top 10 in fantasy scoring: Miami’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. In 2016, the Green Bay duo of Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams as well as New Orleans’ Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas accomplished the same.
This year, in the 10-20 range, we saw teammate Tee Higgins/Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf also dual-impress.
Nobody doubts Amon-Ra anymore
Amon-Ra St. Brown was a late-season breakout in 2021. People tentatively drafted him in 2022. Not crazy low, mind you, but a lot lower than you would have thought based on his dominant end to his rookie year.
Then he showed up in 2022 and finished as a top-10 fantasy WR, proving that rookie splash was no fluke. In early 2023 drafts, St. Brown is going in the second round. No doubters left.
Everybody doubts Gabe Davis
On the complete opposite side of the spectrum is Gabe Davis, who was highly drafted in 2022 after his record-breaking playoff performance in 2021. Davis was not a bust, but he didn’t come close to living up to his Round 3 fantasy draft hype.
This year? He’s coming off early draft boards as the WR39 in Round 7.
