Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
When everything came to a close, the 2022 NFL season ended with no major shock — the best QB in football, Patrick Mahomes, hoisting the Lombardi.
But when you take a step back and look at the big picture, you realized quite a bit changed on the quarterback front this year for fantasy football. Obviously, not everything changed (rushing QBs are still where it’s at for fantasy; the Jets still don’t have a QB), but things do look different than they did leading into the season.
Here’s what changed.
Russell Wilson Is Now Toast
Broncos Country rode straight into the ground in 2022 — the exact opposite of what everyone expected. Russell Wilson was legitimately one of the worst QBs in the league, throwing for 3,500 yards, 16 TDs and 11 INTs in 15 games.
His QB rating (84.4) and completion rate (60.5%) were both career-lows by significant margins, and the great duo of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy was not enough to heal the wound. Nathaniel Hackett was the collateral damage, and now Wilson gets Sean Payton calling the shots.
It’s not a stretch to say 2023 might be a make-or-break year for Wilson. And as for fantasy purposes, he’s currently the QB16 off draft boards. That means people aren’t completely giving up on him, but it’s quite the fall-off.
The Justin Fields Show
Justin Fields’ rushing ability made him an elite fantasy QB overnight — not unlike Jalen Hurts from 2022. Fields improved as a passer (though still has tons of room for improvement there), but it was his rushing that really made him a must-start. Fields rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games and likely would have broken Lamar Jackson’s rushing record if he played the full 17. He also scored eight rushing TDs.
Fields is being drafted as the QB5 in early 2023 drafts — a big jump from him QB18 spot last year. And it’s all deserved.
Speaking of Hurts, he was already highly regarded in fantasy leading in 2022, but he also kicked it up a notch on the ground and, more impressively, through the air. Hurts is now squarely in the Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes tier for fantasy.
GOAT Struggles
For the first time in two decades, both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were mediocre for fantasy. Brady was consistently average with a few pop-off games, while Rodgers just hummed along as a fantasy backup all year. Now Brady has retired, and Rodgers may be out of Green Bay — or the league entirely.
Mr. Irrelevant and the 49ers’ Magical QB Room
The 49ers QB room was wild in 2022. Trey Lance — who was drafted as a tail-end fantasy QB1 last off-season — was injured early in the year. Jimmy Garoppolo replaced him and did typical Jimmy G things (win often but never do enough individually to help in fantasy). Then he got hurt and Brock Purdy took over.
For fantasy purposes, Purdy played like a slightly improved version of Garoppolo. In real football, Purdy was undefeated until an injury took him out of the Conference Championship game.
Now the 49ers are left with a big question leading into 2023: Who the heck is going to be their QB? Most people think it will be Lance (his early 2023 ADP is the same as it was last year), but the 49ers ended the season with three starter-worthy QBs on their team, and they are only going to keep two of them. Where does the third (most likely Garoppolo, who is hitting free agency) end up?
QB Exodus — Headlined by Derek Carr
2022 felt like the beginning of the end for many players. We already mentioned Brady and Rodgers, but there’s an entire group of younger players who also struggled in 2022 — and some even outright lost their jobs.
Derek Carr is out in Vegas, making him a big free agent name. The Matt Ryan experiment in Indy was rough, and Carson Wentz has already been cut by the Commanders. Ditto for Marcus Mariota from the Falcons. Mac Jones played mediocre enough to create at least discussion of a QB controversy in New England, while Baker Mayfield played well enough on the Rams to likely interest some teams. Oh, and Zach Wilson now has a lot of work to do to wipe the bust brand off.
I know we’re talking about the QB purgatory zone, but if you toss in Garoppolo and Rodgers as well, there could be a lot of old QBs in new places in 2023 — or even just entirely new QBs under the center.
