Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
Our two-week run of moneyline underdog profits came to an end with the Steelers failing to continue their pattern or home underdog victories. Pittsburgh lost to Jacksonville 20-10, with quarterback Kenny Pickett leaving the game late in the first half with an rib injury. Time for a Week 9 bounceback.
Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.
Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.
Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 9 of the 2023 season.
Miami Dolphins +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Germany)
(+124, FanDuel Sportsbook)
I have been concerned about this Chiefs offense all season. Kansas City has yet to find consistent weekly fantasy production at the wide receiver position. Rookie Rashee Rice has flashed, but this offense is still too dependent on Travis Kelce. Despite facing the NFL’s worst overall defense in DVOA last week, the Chiefs failed to even score a touchdown in a 24-9 road loss at Denver. Against the league’s third-worst run defense, Kansas City averaged a putrid 3.23 yards per carry from their running backs.
On the defensive side, Kansas City does bring a defense that ranks fifth-overall in DVOA, but have they really been tested? The Chiefs have faced the Bears, Jets and Broncos twice, and a Chargers team with a limited Austin Ekeler. This Miami attack will be Kansas City’s most difficult test of the season, and they play on neutral field in Germany, not in the comforts of their own home stadium. Kansas City’s pass defense has been strong against WR1s, but bleeding production to WR2s. The Chiefs rank just 24th in DVOA against opposing WR2s, and Miami wideout Jaylen Waddle is coming off his most productive game of the season, posting seven receptions, 121 receiving yards and a touchdown against the normally stiff Patriots defense.
Mahomes has been very average as a slight favorite away from home in these betting situations. Since November of 2019, the Chiefs are just 6-7 ATS when a five-point favorite or less, with six outright losses. The critique of Miami has been their lack of a dominant win over quality opponents. I predict they end that narrative this week with a win over the Chiefs in Germany.
Our FTN Bets model projects Miami +2.5 with a 5.5% chance of winning.
Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.24 Units
