Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Happy Halloween, and welcome to Hoops with Noops. Not only is it one of the best holidays of the year, we got a surprise present in the James Harden trade. It’s rare when both sides of the deal are happy, but this seems like one of those cases. Philadelphians and the 76ers couldn’t be happier to end the James Harden saga and got back a good haul with such few suitors. The Clippers get a point guard and their third star player making them an even more intriguing dark horse team if things mesh.
There’s a lot to unpack in the weeks and months to come for a lot teams in the NBA, but none more than the Los Angeles Clippers. Let’s dive into the three game TNT Tuesday slate and hope the only scary thing that happens to us on Halloween is how much candy we eat.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line – Knicks -3/5, 214
My Projection – Knicks 110, Cavaliers 104
Key Injuries – Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen are out. Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert are questionable.
It’s two-game series time. Unfortunately, it’s also early-season injury time. The Cavaliers will be without their starting point guard, starting center and possibly missing their starting shooting guard and the only other good offensive guard on the roster. Mitchell did practice, so I expect him to play. LeVert was a late add to the injury report, which is never a good sign. It’s hard to think of him as a key player for Cleveland, but without Garland and with Mitchell less than 100%, the Cavaliers need LeVert’s offense. The Knicks have a clean injury report and all the pieces needed to dominate this injured Cavaliers roster. Brunson will handle Mitchell and Knicks guards like Grimes and Quickley should be able to attack. Evan Mobley will likely get put on Julius Randle, maybe RJ Barrett, but not on the center for New York which means lots of rebounds for Mitchell Robinson. Let’s back the Knicks in a good spot for them and also play Robinson’s rebounds over prop. Make sure you get into the FTNBets Discord ASAP, because we were able to get the Knicks at -2.5 -115 Monday. Long term, getting the best of the number and being ahead of the move helps your win rate and ROI.
Bets
Knicks -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Mitchell Robinson Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115, BetMGM)
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -7.5, 225
My Projection – Suns 115, Spurs 109
Key Injuries – Bradley Beal is out. Devin Booker is doubtful.
It’s time for another two-game series. The Suns and Spurs play each other Tuesday in Phoenix and then again Thursday also in Phoenix. San Antonio got their first win in overtime against the Houston Rockets, but outside of the first quarter against Dallas, they have lost every quarter they’ve played against better teams. Victor Wembanyama has been exciting but is still learning to play and contribute to winning in the NBA. The Spurs starting five might be good, but the roster overall is one of the worst in the league. They will continue to be big underdogs like this and rightfully so. The Suns continue their season without their top two guards and without any true point guard. Outside of the fourth quarter against the Lakers, it hasn’t hampered their offense much at all. They scored 126 against Utah and they took a 12-point lead into that fourth-quarter loss to LA. Long term, it will put stress on Kevin Durant and Eric Gordon, but Beal or Booker, if not both, should be back soon. As for Tuesday , we can expect a good squad and look for opportunities in the prop market to bet on who will generate assists. Kevin Durant is an underrated passer who has had success as a distributor. He will be the hub of action for Phoenix and with all that attention, other Suns will be open for him to find. Nothing for me on the spread or total, but I’m playing the over for Durant’s assists.
Bets
Kevin Durant Over 5.5 Assists (+110, DraftKings Sportsbook or BetMGM)
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers
Current Line – Clippers -6.5, 219
My Projection – Clippers 112, Magic -106
Key Injuries – Terance Mann is out. Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac are questionable.
Honestly, who cares about this game? James Harden got traded! The Clippers moved Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris and draft picks to Philadelphia for James Harden and P.J. Tucker. There’s a lot to unpack here, but if Harden gets in shape and plays hard and if everyone can stay healthy, then LA will be one of the best teams in the league. Harden will play point guard and allow Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to operate offensively off the ball. The roster is thin and built with veterans, which makes injuries a problem, but Ty Lue is a great coach and might be able to keep things together to get everyone into the postseason and healthy. Tuesday could be tough because the trade limits the players available. Zubac and Powell are questionable, if they don’t play the Clippers have only 8-9 healthy players. Those will 8-9 players should be good enough to beat an Orlando Magic team on a back-to-back off a hard-fought loss to the Lakers. The Magic are better than last year, but still not good enough to be priced any closer to the Clippers. Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz have started the season well and have opened things up for Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Perhaps the young Magic take advantage of a short, veteran Clippers roster who might be distracted by the trade, but the market and I think it’s more than likely that LA wins by at least a few buckets.
Bets
None
