Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Giants vs. Jets
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Giants this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).
- The projections expect Darren Waller to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Darren Waller’s 53.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 35.9.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Giants to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The projections expect this game to have the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.80 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last year, Darren Waller has seen a big downtick this year, currently sitting at 56.0 per game.
- Darren Waller’s 7.9 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 9.8 mark.
- This year, the formidable Jets defense has surrendered a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
