Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).

Pros

The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Giants this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).
The projections expect Darren Waller to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Darren Waller’s 53.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 35.9.

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Giants to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.80 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last year, Darren Waller has seen a big downtick this year, currently sitting at 56.0 per game.
Darren Waller’s 7.9 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 9.8 mark.
This year, the formidable Jets defense has surrendered a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards