NBA Best Bets of the Day (10/27)

It’s time for Hoops with Noops! I hope you got the first video addition on the FTN YouTube channel Thursday. I’ll being doing videos Mondays and Fridays starting next week.

For those of you who prefer to read, don’t fret. I’ll be writing these previews Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday and you can always find my picks on the FTNBets tracker and in the FTNBets Discord. Friday night always means a big slate in the NBA, and this one is no exception. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it right away. Here are my projections, thoughts and bets for the slate.

NBA Best Bets for Friday

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies

Current Line – Nuggets -6, 222
My Projection – Nuggets 114, Grizzlies 107
Key Injuries – Ja Morant, Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke and Luke Kennard are out

Kudos to anyone who grabbed Denver when this game opened up Thursday at -2.5 and -3. The market has pushed this number in a proper range, but some folks have themselves a juicy middle opportunity. The Nuggets are one of the best teams in the NBA and the Memphis Grizzlies are struggling with missing players are much as any team. It is Denver’s first road game, and playing in Memphis is tough, but the Nuggets can attack the biggest weekend of the Grizzlies easily. Without Clarke and Adams, there is a glaring lack of rebounding talent on the roster. Xavier Tillman played a good first game but was bullied all night by the New Orleans Pelicans on the glass. For the time being, I’ll be looking to attack rebounding props for players facing the Grizzlies, and here I’m going with Michael Porter who is the secondary rebounder on Denver. Jokic obviously leads the way, but MPJ is second in line with Aaron Gordon focused on getting back on defense and getting out on the fast break. 6.5 is too low of a number for MPJ, who I have at almost 8 rebounds for.

Bets

Michael Porter Over 6.5 Rebounds (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls

Current Line – Bulls -2, 216.5
My Projection – Bulls 107, Raptors 106
Key Injuries – None

It’s early in the season when handicapping and modeling NBA basketball can be tough as most teams see big changes over the offseason, but that’s not the case here thankfully. Toronto has a new coach, but ultimately the same squad and the Bulls only changes were on the bench. This was a fun matchup last year if you like defense. The Bulls offense is trying to generate more 3s but is based around players who score best inside the arc. The Raptors lack a true point guard, and their offense can get stale and stagnant. Both teams play with a slow pace and a focus on the defensive end of the floor, and they match up well with each other. This looks like a great under spot to me. My rough projections have this at 213 and that was after tweaking a few things to reflect a higher pace and rate of 3pt attempts given that both organizations have talked about modernizing their offenses over the offseason. I’m expecting a tight game, which could mean overtime, but usually means a low-scoring fourth quarter as teams take the air out of the ball becoming slower and more deliberate in their attacks. As with most under bets, maybe don’t watch this game, just follow the score.

Bets

Raptors/Chicago Under 216.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings

Current Line – Kings -2.5, 238
My Projection – Kings 122, Warriors 117
Key Injuries – Draymond Green is out

The Golden State Warriors looked listless in their first game loss to the Suns. Of course, we shouldn’t expect them to shoot 35% from the field again, but it was a reminder of what Draymond Green means on offense and not only on defense. Green is one of the best defenders in NBA history, but he’s also a gifted passer and a key playmaker for the Warriors. Stephen Curry is a great point guard, but most dangerous off the ball. Draymond’s offense not only means no Draymond, but also a less effective Curry. Friday, they face the Sacrament Kings, who were the surprise of the season last year. The Kings finished as the three seed and despite losing to these Warriors in round one, showed a lot of promise. Game one for Sacramento was an easy cover on the road and I expect another cover tonight in their home debut. The Phoenix Suns were a bad matchup for Golden State without Draymond Green and the Sacramento Kings are an even worse matchup. I’m projecting a big offensive output for the Kings and the Warriors may score a lot too, but it’s going to be hard for them to keep pace.