Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We’re almost halfway through the Circa Millions, and my second entry went 5-0 last week and is currently in 37th, which is in the top 1%. My first entry is still in the middle of the pack, tied for 2418th place.
I’ll continue just making my favorite picks with my second entry, whereas I’m going to try to only use half points with my first entry so it’ll either have a chance to rocket up or just stay irrelevant.
Here are the picks I am eyeing this week.
Week 8 Circa Millions Picks
Cleveland Browns +3.5
Pretty simple: I’m a P.J. Walker Truther. Why? I’m not sure, probably because he played for the XFL Houston Roughnecks, which is such a better name than the Texans. Nevertheless, I think this Browns team can pull out a W here, or at least lose by less than a field goal.
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
I’m generally loathe to lay such a good amount of points with a road favorite, but our betting model absolutely loves the Eagles this week, even at -7. Also, the sharper sportsbooks generally make you lay a lot more to get -6.5 and offer plus odds for +6.5 Commanders, implying -6.5 at +100 is essentially a good bet.
Houston Texans -3
The neutral line seems to be -3.5, so this is a free half point on a very important football number. C.J. Stroud has proven he should have been the No. 1 pick this offseason, and the Texans actually have a positive win differential this season, unlike the Panthers which is highly negative. The Panthers are also dead last in DVOA, implying their winless season isn’t a fluke so far.
Los Angeles Rams +6.5
I’m going with the betting model again on this one, especially since my first entry needs as many half entry lines as possible since it’s in “do or die” mode.
Las Vegas Raiders +9
I’m seeing +8 on most places, so I’ll take the free point here, even if it’s not that important of a number. I know how much DVOA loves the Lions and hates the Raiders, but in my heart of hearts, I just don’t think this Raiders team is that bad nor this Lions team is that good. I think we could see a similar sort of game from Thursday night in terms of outcome, with the Lions winning fairly easily but the Raiders still covering this spread.
New England Patriots +9.5
Even after last week’s outcomes, I think this is still America’s Most Hated team versus America’s Most Fun team. Obviously, the troll in me has to go with the hated team.
