NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 225.5 (-120) after it opened @ 235.5 (+125).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 7th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 56.3%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the least efficient passers in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.56 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 23rd percentile.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
