Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 10/28)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros

Phillies ML +140 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Believe it or not, after a long summer of baseball, we have finally made it to the Fall Classic. Friday night, the Astros host the Phillies in Game 1 of the 2022 World Series. Both teams have been dominant in the postseason in their respective leagues, and now these two teams face off to see who will be world champions.

Houston was the No. 1 seed in the American League, and it is easy to see why. Houston has maybe the best all-around team in MLB, and they are four wins away from their second title in six years. The Astros are 7-0 so far this postseason, and they are rolling. This team dominates the opposition with amazing starting pitching, the best bullpen in baseball, a tough lineup that hits for contact and power, and great defense.

The Phillies finished third in their division and were the last team to secure their Wild Card spot, yet here they are, also four wins away from being world champions. This team faced a ton of adversity. They fired their manager midseason, dealt with injuries to key players, and had one of the worse bullpens in baseball. Nevertheless, they made it to the postseason, won nine of 11 games, and are now four more wins away from a title. 

Justin Verlander will take the mound for the Astros for Game 1. Verlander has had an average postseason so far — throughout his illustrious career, he actually is 0-6 on the mound in World Series games.

His first start against the playoffs was a rough one against Seattle, but his second start against the Yankees was dominant. Verlander has been amazing at home this season and his splits are insane. In 88 innings in Houston, Verlander has a 1.64 ERA, a .201 batting average against, a .269 slugging percentage against, a 0.88 WHIP and a 1.70 FIP.

As well as anyone, Verlander knows that none of this matters now. He needs to step up and pitch well tonight to put his team in the best position to not only win Game 1 but to win the World Series. 

Aaron Nola will open up the series for the Phillies. This will be his fourth start of the 2022 postseason. His first two starts were fantastic — he allowed just one run on nine hits in 12.2 innings while striking out 12. However, his last start, on the road in San Diego, was not great. He allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings of work in one of the two Phillies losses this entire postseason.

During the regular season, Nola has been better on the road than he has been at home. He had a 3.00 ERA, a .227 batting average against, a .326 slugging percentage against, a 0.96 WHIP and a 2.10 FIP. 

I’m riding with the Phillies to win the World Series, and while I do think this team could bounce back even if they lost Game 1, I think they get the job done. Verlander has World Series demons, and this is not the lineup you want to face when dealing with those issues.

This Phillies team has a certain aura around them that is hard to quantify. Of course, Houston is amazing, and there is no doubt that they have the overall better team, but if the Phillies can get to Verlander early and avoid facing the Astros’ bullpen down a run or two, they can win this game. 

Bet: Phillies ML +140 (FanDuel Sportsbook)