Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s crazy that we’re already two months into the 2022 NFL season. We now move to Week 8. As you’ll see across FTN Bets, there is tons of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers. If you haven’t already joined our Discord, I recommend doing so, as our experts find time throughout the week for open discussions. They also answer any questions you may have.
“Gross Bombs” will cover a trio of my favorite first-look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will also be located in our Bet Tracker.
Derrick Henry OVER 98.5 Rushing Yards
No matter what Derrick Henry’s rushing yards line opened at, it was going to be too low. This Houston Texans team ranks dead last in DVOA against the run by a pretty sizable margin. They’ve already allowed three 140+ yard rushers this season (Jonathan Taylor, Khalil Herbert, Josh Jacobs), while surrendering 5.23 yards per carry, as well as a league-high 17.02% gash rate. Henry actually missed both meetings with Houston last season due to his injury, but in his last three meetings with the Texans dating back to the end of 2019, he has gone over the 200-yard mark in each meeting, averaging 224.3 rushing yards per game on 7.6 yards per carry.
As I discussed earlier this season when the Titans played in Indianapolis, Henry has averaged 107.5 rushing yards per game in domed stadiums (eight-game sample), and that number skyrockets to 165 rushing yards per game if the Titans are favored.
George Pickens OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards
Why is this line as low as it is? I understand the Eagles are second in DVOA against the pass, but the Steelers are going to have no choice but to pass, as they go into Philadelphia as double-digit underdogs. George Pickens has logged 22 targets on Kenny Pickett’s 130 attempts (17% target share). While not that high, Pickens is tied for 10th in the NFL in aDOT among those with at least 25 targets this season.
Diontae Johnson should draw Darius Slay, so Pickens may see a few more targets than usual. Our FTN Data Model has Pickens projected for 49 receiving yards, while Jeff Ratcliffe has Pickens projected for 55. In the four games Pickett has played this season, Pickens has logged 102, 83, 28 and 61 receiving yards.
Raheem Mostert OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards
Lastly, we go back to ole reliable, as Raheem Mostert prepares to face a Detroit Lions defense that heads into Week 8 ranking 29th in DVOA against the run. Mostert has taken full control of the Dolphins backfield. After a near split in snap share over the first three weeks of the season, Mostert has logged 62% or more of Miami’s offensive snaps in four straight games, including 70% or more in three of four.
Over this four game stretch, Mostert has averaged 15.75 carries per game and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Against a Lions defense allowing 5.28 yards per carry, 66.5 is looking low if we’re expecting another 14-16 carries out of Mostert.
