NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
It has been back-to-back profitable weeks for our moneyline underdog picks. The Chargers failed to stay competitive with quarterback Justin Herbert for the first time in seven chances against the Chiefs, but the Broncos came through as a +104 home underdog against Green Bay to keep up profitable.
Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.
Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.
Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 8 of the 2023 season.
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
(+125,FanDuel Sportsbook)
Despite stumbling as a moneyline underdog pick in Week 1, we are going back to Pittsburgh in Week 8 against the Jaguars. As a home underdog, there are few coaches with a better ATS record than Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. In his 16 seasons as Steelers head coach, Tomlin’s ATS record as a home underdog is an astounding 17-5-3 (77.3%), per BetLabs. After losing that opening game to San Francisco, the Steelers upset the Browns and Ravens in the exact same home underdog role this season.
The bye week allowed the Steelers offense to reset, and they looked dramatically better. The return of wide receiver Diontae Johnson made quarterback Kenny Pickett more relaxed in the pocket, equating to an efficient 17-of-25 passing day with no turnovers. Pickett’s 9.2 yards per attempt was the highest in any game this season.
The Steelers also started to get their rushing game started with running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both post a rushing touchdown in Week 7. The Jaguars rush defense is strong, but both Pittsburgh running backs can also attack Jacksonville through the air. The Jaguars have allowed the most targets (60) and receptions (51) to opposing running backs this season and were just eviscerated by New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara for 12 receptions on 14 targets last week.
Jacksonville’s leading wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, has struggled throughout the season, and has five games of 40 receiving yards or less. This Steelers defense just shut down Rams star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, which should provide an effective schematic against the Jaguars passing attack. Pittsburgh loves to generate pressure, and the Steelers rank second in sacks per game at home (4.3), trailing only the Ravens.
We are always looking for edges in betting NFL sides, and there aren’t many more profitable edges to exploit than Tomlin’s Steelers as a home underdog. I am backing Pittsburgh to earn their third win in four chances as a moneyline home underdog this season.
Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.25 Units
