MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Diamondbacks +140 @ Phillies -165 – Total 8 (BetMGM)
The two best words in sports: Game Seven. The Bank will be rocking Tuesday as the Diamondbacks and Phillies face off for a chance to head to the World Series. Baseball fans around the world get to settle in for their second Game 7 in as many nights, as the Rangers punched their World Series ticket Monday night. While most of my profit this season has come from pitching props, we’re actually going to bet a batting prop in this one.
Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona in this elimination game, and while he’s displayed great control this year with a BB% in the 81st percentile, we’re betting on a Phillie to get walked. Pfaadt has only walked one batter in 12-plus innings this postseason. However, despite his control, he won’t be long for this game, as his outs prop is as low as 10.5, with everybody except for Merrill Kelly being available out of the bullpen for this one.
Bryce Harper is slashing .316/.490/.711 this postseason, and despite only batting .263 in the NLCS he’s still finding his way on base. Harper has a .440 OBP this series thanks to more walks (six) than hits (five), and the Diamondbacks seem willing to let someone else beat them. Harper has walked in five of the six games this series, and he went yard in the only game they didn’t give him a free pass. Harper’s been taking his walks all his season, as he ranks in the 96th percentile. It helps us that the man batting behind Harper is Alec Bohm, who is slashing .233/.327 /.302 with seven of his 10 hits being singles in the playoffs.
It’s obviously more fun to root for dongs and runs but this should get us to the window. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number on the board.
Bet
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (-115, BetMGM)
