Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, James Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (+100) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to notch 14.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- James Robinson has earned 56.8% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
