Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-110).

Pros

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 70.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Cons

Zach Ertz has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers project as the 7th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards