TNF Plays: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, Week 5

The Denver Broncos offense showed signs of life last week despite losing stud running back Javonte Williams for the season with a torn ACL.

Denver has a chance to push over the .500 mark with a home Thursday Night Football game against the struggling Indianapolis Colts, who have injury issues of their own and will be without workhorse running back Jonathan Taylor.

Here is my favorite prop bet for Thursday’s game.

Russell Wilson 200+ Passing Yards/Jerry Jeudy 40+ Receiving Yards

-125 FanDuel Sportsbook

The Broncos versus Colts is one of the least interesting matchups of the week. Despite the rather vanilla coaching matchup, there is still an opportunity to win money! The Colts have gotten off to a very disappointing start, with the silver lining being a win over the Chiefs. The Broncos have been solid, but there have been very valid questions about their coaching ability. The Broncos are currently sitting as 3.5-point favorites with a game total set at 43. The books are expecting a close, defense-oriented matchup. 

The biggest story of this game is the lack of running backs. Jonathan Taylor, the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick this season, is officially ruled out. Nyheim Hines will fill in and likely increase his pass-catching role, with Phillip Lindsay likely to get most of the ground work. Lindsay will be a big topic of conversation with his return to Denver. He had a pro-bowl season with the Broncos earlier in his career and was cut the season after, so I’m expecting him to bring it this game. The Broncos are without running back Javonte Williams, meaning they’re going to need to lean on Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. 

I expect the Broncos passing game to finally show up. While this may not be the most aggressive passing offense in the world, a group of three inefficient running backs should force them to become a bit more aggressive. Additionally, this Colts defense is a pass funnel, ranking third in DVOA’s rush defense rankings. 

Even with the loss of Shaquille Leonard, this run defense was firing on all cylinders, and I doubt Gordon is the one opposing back who changes that. Jerry Jeudy is my preferred target in the Broncos passing offense, with Courtland Sutton seeing Stephon Gilmore on the outside. Kenny Moore has been a good corner to target this season, and we’ve seen slot/secondary receivers have much more success. I expect Jeudy to show the world that he’s healthy in this matchup.