Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 85.5 (-125) after it opened @ 86.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 24.2 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has received 84.4% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
- The Tennessee Titans have utilized some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 50.5 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
102
Rushing Yards
102
Rushing Yards
