Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-121) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 6.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has been a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this year (23.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.9%).
- Pat Freiermuth has compiled far more air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Pat Freiermuth’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 62.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
