Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nyheim Hines from EV Insight

Nyheim HinesRushing Yards

Right now, Nyheim Hines’s rushing yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (37.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cons

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Nyheim Hines has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (2.0) this season than he did last season (15.0).
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards