NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Nyheim HinesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Colts
Right now, Nyheim Hines’s rushing yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (37.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).
- The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
- Nyheim Hines has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (2.0) this season than he did last season (15.0).
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
