NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to total 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Vikings are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Irv Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in just 51.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.
- Irv Smith has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a measly 5.11 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 12th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
