NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-125) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a giant 10-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 17.3 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Leonard Fournette has averaged 56.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (79th percentile).
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.30 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (68.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (82.2% in games he has played).
- Leonard Fournette’s running effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling a mere 3.73 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 mark last season.
- Leonard Fournette has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.37 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 14th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
