NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/21)
Alex Christenson
This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best moneymaking opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.
TCU vs. Kansas
(TCU -6.5, O/U 69, BetMGM)
Who would have thought that College GameDay would be in Lawrence, Kansas, for this game? You’d be lying if you say you did.
However, after Kansas’ hot start, they find themselves now ranked and off to their best start since the days of Todd Reesing. Jalon Daniels has been one of the best players in college football as he is averaging 0.59 EPA per play and has been the driving force behind bringing Kansas to 5-0. The Jayhawks have the 14th-best passing success rate in the country and their offense is ranked 27th by SP+, which never could have been imagined for the last decade.
TCU on the other hand is also off to a hot start at 4-0, having just demolished Oklahoma 55-24 a week ago. TCU’s offense has been on another level, ranking 21st in SP+ with the 10th-best offense. They have scored 38 or more points in every game this season and haven’t had a game end with a winning margin of less than 8 points.
While this Kansas story has been great and I don’t love fading the home team on College GameDay, I think that this is where the undefeated season will come to an end. TCU is a better program and should be able to win this game by a good margin. Jalon Daniels will be the only hope that the Jayhawks have of hanging with the Horned Frogs this weekend.
Kansas is 5-0 ATS this season and TCU is 4-0 ATS, so something has to give here. This line started around TCU -4.5 early in the week but moved towards TCU and now sits around 7 at most books. I believe that this line should be around 7.5 to 8. Using our odds page, I was able to find a -6.5 on TCU at BetMGM, so I will be looking to grab the Horned Frogs there.
The Pick: TCU -6.5
Utah vs. UCLA
(Utah -3.5, O/U 64.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Utah’s offense has been exceptional this season. They have had an offensive success rate above the 65th percentile in every game and all but one game has been in the 89th percentile or higher. However, they have not faced any good defenses yet. UCLA’s defense will be the biggest test that this Utah offense has faced this season according to SP+ rankings.
This season Utah’s offense has the No. 27 offensive success rate in the country and is ranked as the No. 11 offense by SP+. Quarterback Cam Rising has led the team through the air, but the Utes rushing attack has been great, ranking 22nd in the country in rushing success rate.
On the other side, UCLA is also dealing with a high-powered offense. They rank seventh in offensive success rate, sixth in passing success rate and 25th in rushing success rate. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has played well in his fifth year on campus, averaging 0.34 EPA per dropback.
Before facing Washington a week ago, UCLA destroyed a ton of bad defenses. This carried over against Washington though as they were able to put up a 94th percentile offensive success rate in that game as well in a big conference win. This Utah defense will be the best that UCLA has faced this season, but UCLA’s offense is strong enough to overcome that.
I see the edge in this game coming from the Utah rushing attack against the UCLA run defense. UCLA’s defense ranks 40th in success rate but they are only 91st against the run. With Utah having a great rushing attack and running the ball at the No. 26 rate in the country, UCLA will need to find a way to defend this as they haven’t been able to yet this year.
The other concern for me in this one is the UCLA offense. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has played well so far this year against mostly bad opponents, but in the past he has shown a propensity to make mistakes that concerns me. This UCLA offense also ranks just 104th in the nation in explosiveness this year, which may end up forcing DTR to make mistakes if he has to lead a lot of long drives against an opportunistic Utes defense.
Utah has a winning pedigree and I believe in what they have built there, more so than I believe in UCLA as a program. Utah is 4-1 ATS this year and by Bill Connelly’s expected score metric, they should be 5-0. Cam Rising is one of the better quarterbacks in the country and I think that this will show through Saturday.
The Pick: Utah -3.5
Tennessee vs. LSU
(Tennessee -3, O/U 60.5, BetMGM)
This Tennessee offense has looked like one of the best in the country to date. Quarterback Hendon Hooker has been among the best in the country, averaging 0.39 EPA per play. In three of the four games that Tennessee has played this season, they have an offensive success rate in the 94th percentile or higher, with the one exception being a 74th percentile performance versus Pittsburgh. This offense ranks 11th in the country in offensive success rate and 10th in passing success rate. The issue here lies in the fact that none of these defenses that Tennessee has faced rank in the top 70 by SP+ and LSU has a ranking of 13th.
I was all in one LSU against Auburn a week ago. There were so many things going against Auburn, and I felt like LSU was underrated by the market, but this proved to be incorrect. LSU escaped with a 21-17 win, but by Bill Connelly’s expected scores, Auburn was the better team and should have won that game.
This brings me to a crossroads as I don’t know what to believe about LSU. They should be a bit better than they were last week as Jayden Daniels is expected to return from injury, but they still had just a 25th percentile offensive success rate after being very good in their previous matchups. The good news for the Tigers is that Tennessee’s defense ranks just 50th in SP+, a long way behind the likes of Mississippi State and Auburn, who LSU has already beaten.
I have a lot of respect for this LSU team and if they were to lose this weekend, there may be an opportunity to take them in future weeks. However, I just believe that this Tennessee team has something special going and will be rested up coming off of the bye. It sounds like Daniels is healthy this week, but not sure if he will be at 100% as Brian Kelly mentioned that his running ability would have been hindered if he would have returned against Auburn.
At the key number of three, I will take Tennessee to win and cover this spread.
The Pick: Tennessee -3
