Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- Dallas Goedert has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
- Dallas Goedert’s 30.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 43.8.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
