Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has notched quite a few more air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 7.56 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
