Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).
Pros
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a terrific 70.5% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (71.4%).
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Giants pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.
Cons
- The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 33.9 passes in this game, on average: the 11th-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
