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Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Melvin Gordon from EV Insight

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Melvin Gordon

Melvin GordonRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 5

Broncos vs. Colts

Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to earn 16.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (59.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.2% in games he has played).
  • The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons

  • The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Melvin Gordon has run for quite a few less yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
  • Melvin Gordon’s running efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating just 3.68 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.45 rate last year.

Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards

Previous Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight Next Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight