Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Melvin Gordon from EV Insight

Melvin GordonRushing Yards

Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to earn 16.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Melvin Gordon to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (59.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.2% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Melvin Gordon has run for quite a few less yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Melvin Gordon’s running efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating just 3.68 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.45 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards