Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Ezekiel Elliott from EV Insight

Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards

Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-104) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 40.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to accumulate 14.7 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Ezekiel Elliott has received 58.8% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Ezekiel Elliott has generated 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among running backs (78th percentile).

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Ezekiel Elliott’s running efficiency (3.64 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among RBs).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has had the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 3.98 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards