Week 4 Quick Reads: Big Offense in Buffalo

Updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 10:30 am EDT.

Week 4 is the week I start introducing opponent adjustments to my numbers (at 40% strength) so this is a good time to look at which players have taken advantage of an easy schedule so far… or have been hurt by a tough schedule early.

Quarterbacks

By far, the quarterback who has most been affected by schedule is Zach Wilson. Wilson has faced the top two pass defenses by DVOA (Dallas and Buffalo) and then two other above-average pass defenses (New England and Kansas City). This doesn’t make him a good quarterback, but he does go from -164 YAR (30th) to -83 DYAR (27th) with current opponent adjustments. Joshua Dobbs and Daniel Jones also get a bump from opponent adjustments.

The quarterback with the easiest schedule so far is Justin Herbert. All four of his opponents rank 21st or lower in pass defense DVOA. He goes from 380 YAR to 312 DYAR with opponent adjustments. Russell Wilson, Sam Howell, and Baker Mayfield have also taken advantage of easier schedules early on.

Running Backs

What’s remarkable is not just that Josh Jacobs has struggled early on in 2023 but that he’s struggled against an easy schedule! Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers are two of the worst run defenses so far this season. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are a little better than average. Jacobs goes from -38 rush YAR to -87 rush DYAR, worst in the league, once you add in opponent adjustments. Christian McCaffrey and Khalil Herbert have also had easier schedules so far.

The hardest schedule for a running back belongs to Joe Mixon, who goes from 46 rush YAR (11th) all the way to 92 rush DYAR (third) with adjustments. Cleveland, Tennessee, and Baltimore all rank in the top six for run defense DVOA right now. Rachaad White and Kenneth Gainwell have also faced hard schedules.

Wide Receivers

The opponent adjustments for wide receivers are smaller than those for quarterbacks and running backs, at least when it comes to the amount of DYAR. The receiver with the biggest positive adjustment is Ja’Marr Chase, who goes from 52 YAR to 72 DYAR. Garrett Wilson also has a nice positive adjustment, which makes sense – defenses that are hard on the quarterback are also hard on the wide receivers.

The biggest moves in the other direction belong to Raiders receivers Davante Adams and Jacobi Meyers. Adams, for example, goes from 112 YAR (ninth) to 88 DYAR (12th). Tyreek Hill and the Chargers receivers, Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer, also take a hit from opponent adjustments.

Don’t forget that all of the player DYAR and DVOA for the season is available on FTN and updated Monday and Tuesday mornings right here.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Josh Allen	BUF	21/25	320	4	0	2	241	240	1	MIA
This is currently the best QB game of 2023 so far by DYAR. Allen had an insane 170 DYAR on first down, averaging 20.4 net yards per pass (including a 43-yard DPI to Stefon Diggs). The only play we didn’t score as a success was an incomplete pass to Diggs on first-and-goal from the Miami 6 in the second quarter.
2.	Brock Purdy	SF	20/21	283	1	0	1	218	214	4	ARI
Purdy had an almost-insane 152 DYAR on first down, averaging 15.7 net yards per pass. The only play we didn’t score as a success was an almost-success, a 4-yard gain by Kyle Juszczyk.
3.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	17/28	306	2	0	0	165	157	8	PIT
Stroud looks excellent so far in his rookie year. This game is currently tied for the No. 10 best rookie quarterback game in DYAR since 1981. (DYAR will change a little as opponent adjustments change over time.) It is the only one of the top 20 rookie games to come in Weeks 1-4. The bad news for Texans fans? One of the better rookie games belonged to Davis Mills in 2021, in Week 5 vs. the Patriots. So nothing is guaranteed! But Stroud has had a great start. And yes, he certainly looks better than Mills by the eye test. By the way, Stroud led the league with 10.8 average YAC on catches this week. Nobody else was above 7.8.
4.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	26/37	319	2	0	3	117	113	4	WAS
5.	Joshua Dobbs	ARI	28/41	265	2	0	1	115	115	0	SF
Dobbs is, not kidding here, currently seventh in passing DVOA among quarterbacks. The guy showed up to camp like a couple of weeks before the season started and his team was supposed to be tanking. His performance so far is remarkable.
6.	Baker Mayfield	TB	26/32	246	3	1	1	108	105	3	NO
Mayfield earned 96 passing DYAR on third downs. He was 6 of 7 with a sack and a DPI for 9.0 net yards per pass. Mayfield converted three third-and-longs (7 or more to go).
7.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	23/30	207	1	0	2	101	85	16	ATL
8.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	15/19	186	2	0	3	98	97	1	CLE
Jackson earned 82 passing DYAR on third downs. He completed 7 of 9 passes with four conversions despite those passes averaging 10.4 yards to go.
9.	Russell Wilson	DEN	21/28	223	3	0	1	93	90	3	CHI
Remember the red zone problems Denver had at the beginning of last year? That stuff is temporary. Wilson this week completed 4 of 6 passes in the red zone including all three of his touchdowns. The terrible Broncos defense is masking the fact that Wilson is having a real comeback season.
10.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	27/40	319	1	1	2	82	76	5	IND
11.	Dak Prescott	DAL	28/34	261	1	0	3	78	78	0	NE
12.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	25/35	282	1	1	4	75	70	5	BUF
Apparently, Brock Purdy is now the leader among quarterbacks in EPA/play, but DVOA and DYAR still prefer Tagovailoa for this season, and by a good amount. He’s got 679 pass DYAR compared to Purdy at 454 and Allen at 445.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Anthony Richardson	IND	11/25	200	2	0	2	66	71	-5	LAR
Richardson had negative rushing value despite a touchdown and a 23-yard gain because he had two fumbles, one on an 8-yard carry and one on an aborted play.
14.	Justin Fields	CHI	29/35	335	4	1	4	55	60	-5	DEN
Fields is second in red zone passing DYAR this season behind only Tua Tagovailoa. This week he had three passes in the red zone: two short touchdowns and a 10-yard DPI.
15.	Sam Howell	WAS	29/41	290	1	0	5	47	34	13	PHI
16.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	18/25	240	1	1	3	45	74	-29	CIN
Tannehill loses value as a runner because of a blown snap and runs for 0, 1, and 4 yards on first-and-10s.
17.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	28/39	245	2	0	2	44	53	-9	KC
18.	Jared Goff	DET	19/28	210	1	1	2	31	26	5	GB
Goff leads all quarterbacks this season with 11.4 net yards per pass on first downs. He is third in passing DYAR on first downs behind Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy. This week he completed 9 of 12 passes on first down for 9.9 net yards per pass and then completed 3 of 6 on second down (one of them was a 5-yard loss) with a sack for -1.7 net yards per pass.
19.	Bailey Zappe	NE	4/9	57	0	0	1	7	7	0	DAL
20.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	18/30	203	1	2	1	1	-20	21	NYJ
Surprisingly, this is not one of the worst games of Mahomes’ career. Mahomes has put up 10 games of negative DYAR in his career. Five of them came between Week 7 and Week 13 of 2021. Also, if the Jets defense continues to play this well, the DYAR of this game will go up as opponent adjustments become stronger. Mahomes cost himself 8 rushing DYAR by sliding short of the goal line at the end of the game.
21.	Justin Herbert	LAC	13/24	167	1	1	2	-11	-11	0	LV
Herbert came out of this game with a finger fracture on his non-throwing hand but has a bye week now to get it healthier before playing in Week 6 against the Cowboys.
MNF	Geno Smith	SEA	13/20	117	1	0	2	-16	-16	0	NYG
22.	Bryce Young	CAR	25/32	204	0	0	5	-33	-33	1	MIN
Young had a league-low 3.7-yard average depth of target this week. Yuck.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	12/18	139	2	2	2	-36	-17	-20	CAR
A lot of quarterbacks were good on third down this week. Cousins was not. He had -80 passing DYAR on third down: 2 for 6 with a sack and the 99-yard pick-six. The two completions included a touchdown on third-and-1 from the Carolina 4 and a 3-yard gain on third-and-6. Cousins’ negative rushing value comes from a bad snap on second-and-1 near the Carolina goal line. The Vikings did recover the ball.
24.	Joe Burrow	CIN	20/30	165	0	0	3	-42	-48	6	TEN
Let me point you over to Mike Tanier’s column at The Messenger, and I agree with him. They need to sit Joe Burrow for a couple of weeks to see if he can get his calf right. Jake Browning is bad but it can’t be much worse than this. Then, if the Bengals are still in it, bring back a healthier Burrow and make a run. Burrow’s average depth of target was just 4.5 yards, even with a talented Bengals receiving corps that can get downfield.
25.	Derek Carr	NO	23/37	127	0	0	2	-65	-67	2	TB
Jameis Winston came in at the end of the game to throw one deep interception for -32 passing DYAR.
26.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	15/23	114	0	1	3	-66	-72	6	HOU
27.	Mac Jones	NE	12/21	150	0	2	1	-92	-84	-9	DAL
28.	Jordan Love	GB	23/36	246	1	2	5	-106	-94	-12	DET
The Packers averaged a league-low 2.1 yards after the catch this week. Love had -53 passing DYAR on first downs and -70 passing DYAR on second downs with just 1.85 net yards per pass.
29.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	19/31	191	1	2	4	-111	-114	3	JAX
30.	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	CLE	19/36	121	0	3	4	-118	-127	9	BAL
It makes sense to find the lower-round rookies down here at the bottom of the Quick Reads table. DTR converted only five of his third downs (including a DPI) and had two interceptions and a sack-fumble for -65 DYAR on third downs.
31.	Aidan O’Connell	LV	24/39	238	0	1	7	-158	-154	-4	LAC
O’Connell had -118 DYAR on first downs, averaging 3.9 net yards per pass with a fumble and an interception. He took three sacks on third down and only converted 1 of 9 tries, a 21-yard pass to Josh Jacobs on third-and-19 which was mostly (16 yards) yards after the catch.
MNF	Daniel Jones	NYG	27/34	203	0	2	10	-205	-217	12	SEA

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	20	106	3	7/8	71	1	95	36	59	ARI
This is currently the best RB game of 2023 so far by DYAR. Last week’s two Miami performances (De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert) are second and third. All seven of McCaffrey’s catches resulted in a first down or touchdown.
2.	Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	7	72	0	3/3	32	1	59	31	27	CHI
Who? McLaughlin is an undrafted rookie who set a record as the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher at Notre Dame COLLEGE (Division II, 2 seasons) and Youngstown State (FCS, 3 seasons). NFL.com’s scouting report called him a “slashing runner who relies on burst, wiggle, and speed” but dinged him for his pass protection and “not always trusting the blocking scheme.”
3.	De’Von Achane	MIA	8	101	2	3/5	19	0	52	50	2	BUF
All eight of Achane’s carries gained at least 3 yards.
4.	Isiah Pacheco	KC	20	115	1	3/3	43	0	43	24	20	NYJ
Pacheco’s fine receiving day makes up for getting stuffed for a loss or no gain on 25% of his carries. Oh, and a 48-yard touchdown helps too.
5.	Josh Jacobs	LV	17	58	1	8/11	81	0	42	9	33	LAC
Jacobs had six successful catches including three that went for at least 14 yards.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	De’Von Achane	MIA	8	101	2	3/5	19	0	52	50	2	BUF
2.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	20	106	3	7/8	71	1	95	36	59	ARI
3.	Joe Mixon	CIN	14	67	0	1/1	9	0	40	36	4	TEN
4.	Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	7	72	0	3/3	32	1	59	31	27	CHI
5.	Bijan Robinson	ATL	14	105	0	5/5	32	0	41	31	11	JAX

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Raheem Mostert

MIA

3/5

-42

-36

-6

BUF

Showing how things can change from week to week in the NFL, Mostert had only two successful runs (a conversion on second-and-2 and a 6-yard gain on first-and-10) and fumbled the ball away in the second quarter.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)