Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.6% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among TEs.
- Robert Tonyan has accumulated a whopping 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 84.0%.
- The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 58.4 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
