Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.6% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has accumulated a whopping 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan’s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 84.0%.
The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Cons

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards