Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Robinson from EV Insight

James RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, James Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to garner 14.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
James Robinson has been given 60.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
James Robinson has averaged 59.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (90th percentile).

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards