Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
James RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, James Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to garner 14.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
- James Robinson has been given 60.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- James Robinson has averaged 59.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (90th percentile).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
