Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Marcus Mariota has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 8.31 yards-per-target while ranking in the 91st percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 30.6 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
238
Passing Yards
238
Passing Yards
