Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Kendrick Bourne’s skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, notching 7.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 5.40 figure last season.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Kendrick Bourne’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.8% to 53.2%.
- Kendrick Bourne’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, notching a mere 5.65 yards-per-target vs a 9.61 rate last season.
- The New York Jets defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 112.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
