NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 3

We’re two weeks in, and I’m still not cancelled. 

My new goal is to last longer than the first coach fired, and I believe I can make that happen if I continue my 2-0 Survivor streak with my Week 3 picks.

San Francisco 49ers

-10 vs. Giants

I got the NFL’s memo and bribe money to talk bad about running backs on the internet and undermine their negotiating power the same as every other Aaron Schatz disciple. But I dreamed of becoming a Big J journalist when I was a boy, and no number of all-expenses-paid late-February Caribbean trips can entice me to compromise the sanctity of my Survivor Picks column. Saquon Barkley gained 1,650 yards from scrimmage in 2022, which was 27.7% of the Giants’ team total. Only Derrick Henry (36.1%), Josh Jacobs (32.9%),  Nick Chubb (28.5%) and Justin Jefferson (28.4%) gained a higher rate of their teams’ yards. And without Barkley, Daniel Jones is both the Giants’ best passer and best runner. Yikes. The 49ers by a 40.

Kansas City Chiefs

-12.5 vs. Bears

Justin Fields is 24 years old, the same age as rookie Will Levis and a year younger than second-year Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett. Do you know what that means? That Fields might be a little too open and honest with reporters? No. It means that, to him, 39-year-old offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and 35-year-old quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko are boomers and might as well wear backwards hats and hold skateboards like in that Steve Buscemi meme. Boomers love to tell stories about how quarterbacks in their day used to “walk five miles to practice knee deep in snow” and “read through their progressions.” But this isn’t 1966, and the boomer quarterback icons Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr and Tom Brady are long since retired. This is Justin Fields‘ time. And if Fields wants to ad-lib and scramble for 150 yards and two touchdowns while the Bears lose by 25 to the Chiefs, then who am I as someone with Fields on two of his fantasy teams to criticize him?

Also, the Bears don’t have a defensive coordinator.

Miami Dolphins

-6.5 vs. Broncos

The Week 3 Revenge Game rankings are missing much of last week’s hostility:

1. Bradley Chubb, Dolphins vs. Broncos – I would be in good spirits too if I were paid $119 million to take my talents to South Beach.

2. Nick Scott, Bengals vs. Rams – May have thought he left a rebuilding team for a Super Bowl contender, but Scott clearly forgot about McVay.

3. Eric Kendricks, Chargers at Vikings – The Chargers and Vikings are fated to play in only one-score games. I’m not sure Kendricks can tell a difference — at least until it’s December and still 70 degrees in Los Angeles.

4. Shaquill Griffin, Texans at Jaguars – Finally free from the back pain he developed from carrying the Jaguars secondary the last two seasons.

5. Chris Hubbard, Titans at Browns – Somehow landed with the only team that lets him run-block more than the Browns did.

But Bradley Chubb runs a Dolphins-appropriate 4.65-second 40, which has to be at least half a second faster than Russell Wilson at this point. Chubb should have four sacks without really trying this Sunday. Take the Dolphins and the under on 1.5 more weeks until Jarrett Stidham is starting games for the Broncos.

Dallas Cowboys

-12 at Cardinals

The Cowboys suffered a major blow when they likely lost their star cornerback Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL in Thursday practice. Fortunately for the team, they can bump up their No. 2 cornerback, former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Also fortunately, the Cowboys draw a Cardinals opponent with approximately 1.3 capable receivers this Sunday. Soon-to-be 33 years old and fresh off his own ACL tear in 2022, Zach Ertz has a 31% target share that leads the team, leads tight ends and ties him for seventh among all players with A.J. Brown, Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel — three players with six healthy knees and real talent. 

I’m pretty sure Micah Parsons can handle Ertz in coverage. I’m like 95% sure that Parsons could play a better tight end than Ertz can. And frankly, I’d love to see it. Jerry, if you want to stop losing sports talk radio time to your former cornerback Deion Sanders and his Colorado Buffaloes, then you should take a page from Travis Hunter’s book and play Parsons both ways. If Parsons could add 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns to his 20-plus sacks this season, then I bet he could beat Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr out for 14th place in MVP voting.

Carolina Panthers

+5.5 at Seahawks

It would devastate most teams to lose their No. 1 draft pick quarterback on the eve of a difficult road trip to one of the noisiest stadiums in football. But it should help the Panthers! Backup quarterback Andy Dalton has averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt in his 13-year career. That’s nearly three more yards than Bryce Young has averaged in two starts (4.2 yards) and nearly six more yards than Young is tall (1.94 yards, allegedly). The 6-foot-3 Jarran Reed and Dre’Mont Jones will be batting at air when the 6-foot-2 Dalton lofts his passes this Sunday. 

And they’ll be batting at Dalton when he actually takes his own quarterback sneaks. Can Dalton lead a receiving room without a No. 1, a No. 2 and maybe even a No. 3 to a win in Seattle? Probably not. But you would be a Survivor League legend if you picked them and they did! Plus, this Panthers fan would feel a little less numb with a frivolous win with a player in Dalton who isn’t a part of the team’s future than he felt with all the wins with a coach in Steve Wilks who wasn’t a part of the team’s future in 2022. You know, back when the Panthers had their own first- and second-round draft picks.

Scott’s Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Scott’s Record: 2-0