Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Evan Engram has run a route on 80.6% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to accrue 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has been among the leading pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 44.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.6%) to tight ends since the start of last season (69.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
