Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 42.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- Drake London has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.1% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Drake London has totaled a whopping 71.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.
- Drake London has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing just 61.4% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile among wideouts
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.9%) versus WRs this year (62.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
