Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NBA has a small six-game slate of games Monday. The Memphis vs. San Antonio and Denver vs. Los Angeles Lakers games have double-digit spreads. The Bulls vs. Celtics game is also sitting at -8.5, so we have a few games we need to be careful with because of the potential blowout factor.
I tend to avoid overs in games with big totals, as the likelihood for unpredictable minutes increases. That leaves us three other games that are much juicier to consider for prop bet production, and you will notice that’s where I’m turning my focus today. Here are my best NBA bets for Monday.
Best NBA Total Bet
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 238
This is the biggest edge we have today in our FTNBets NBA model. It was a bit higher at the opening at 238.5, but even half a point lower at 238 gives us a 10% edge. Memphis is a double-digit favorite in this one, and while the Spurs play fast and are soft defensively, I’m not sure the Spurs have the firepower against a very good defensive Memphis team to keep it close enough for the total to end up in the 240 range.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Naji Marshall OVER 15.5
Naji Marshall is directly affected most with the injuries to Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. He has seen a 10+ minute bump in the last few games versus his season averages. In the last three games without Zion, Naji has gone for 16, 23 and 24 points. All of those totals would give him a win on this 15.5 number. Naji averaged under nine field-goal attempts per game before the Zion injury and has since taken 13+ FG per game. This has coincided with the minutes bump to make him a viable scoring option for the Pelicans.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 11.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo has grabbed 13 and 14 rebounds in his last two matchups against the Knicks. Either of those performances would cash this today. The game is in New York, and Khris Middleton remains out, which should help keep the score close enough to get a full run out of the Milwaukee starters. Giannis has 20+ rebounds in three of the last five games. Last game, the Hornets opened up a big lead and Giannis saw under 23 minutes when he had been playing high 30s minutes per night. I would expect the minutes to get back into that range today along with the rebounding numbers he has been putting up lately.
