Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 241.5 (+100) after it opened @ 216.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Jalen Hurts has thrown for many more yards per game (236.0) this season than he did last season (210.0).
Jalen Hurts’s passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.6% to 66.8%.

Cons

The Eagles are a massive 17-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 26.7 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New York Giants defense this year (67.7%).
The New York Giants defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
204
Passing Yards