Week 18 NFL Player Props of the Week

The final week of the NFL season is here, and while not every team has something to play for, there are still plenty of valuable spots. In this article, I’ll take you through some of my favorite player props for the Week 18 slate. 

Jamaal Williams to Score a Touchdown

(-120, BetMGM)

Whether or not the Lions are eligible for the playoffs come gametime, I expect them to give the Packers one hell of a fight. Dan Campbell is known for his motivational coaching style, and regardless of whether they make the playoffs, I think they will be playing hard to send their division home on primetime. According to the FTN Red Zone Report, Jamaal Williams leads the NFL in red zone carries with 46, despite splitting carries with D’Andre Swift, resulting in a league-leading 15 rushing touchdowns. Williams also leads the league in 1-yard touchdowns, so if they end up on the goal-line we all know who’s getting the rock.

Now that we’ve established that this is a good play with or without incentives, let’s talk about the record he has a chance to break. If he scores one touchdown, he ties Barry Sanders’ franchise record; if he scores two, he breaks it. While he will be the clear red-zone back despite the Lions’ motivation level, it will be a priority if they are eliminated. Multiple Lions coaches, including RB coach Duce Staley, have stressed the importance of him getting this 1,000-yard season and making franchise history. Staley was the same coach who provided valuable information on Swift’s status not being 100%, prior to multiple weeks of disappointing usage. Before this week, he said that everyone in the building wanted Williams to tie or break the record, and that he would have multiple opportunities to do so. 

I would probably have this priced around -160 to -175, so I see value at anything better than -140. According to the FTN Prop Shop, its -120 on BetMGM, -127 on Unibet and -135 on FanDuel Sportsbook. I expect it to close around -150. 

Tyler Conklin Over 25.5 Receiving Yards

(-120, PointsBet)

While the Jets are no longer playing for a playoff spot, Robert Saeah can send his close friend Mike McDaniel home for the new year. Miami is still in the playoff hunt with a win, but they will be without both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, leaving third-string rookie Skylar Thompson to take the reins. The Jets will be without Mike White because of injury, meaning Joe Flacco will take over once again. One of the most interesting quotes of the week was Saleh’s comments on choosing Flacco over Zach Wilson. One of his main reasons in starting Flacco was the offensive line, and he was worried that in the state they were in, it would do more harm to Wilson. 

The Jets are down three starting offensive lineman and allowed 19 pressures and 5 QB hits against a lackluster Seattle pass rush. That’s a bad sign for what’s to come with Miami. The Jets know they are going to have to get the ball out quickly, and Tyler Conklin provides a great checkdown option. He posted an 18-140-1 statline in three starts with Flacco earlier this season, averaging 8 targets per game. C.J. Uzomah, who he splits snaps with, got injured mid-week at practice and is now questionable for the game. I doubt they rush him back for a game they don’t need to win, and once he’s ruled out, I expect this line to move upward by about 5 yards. I expect plenty of checkdowns from King Flacco, and Conklin should be a huge beneficiary.