Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 17.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more yards per game (102.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
Josh Jacobs’s running efficiency has improved this season, notching 5.04 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.12 rate last season.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards