Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Lauri Markkanen Over 26.5 Points
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lauri Markkanen has gone over this number in seven of his last 10 games and now gets a matchup against the Bulls, who rank in the bottom 10 in defense this season. My model projects him for over 28.
Domantas Sabonis Over 42.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Domantas Sabonis is a legit triple-double threat, and in a great matchup against the Lakers, we could see a huge game from the big man from Sacramento. My model projects Sabonis for 22 points, over 8 assists and nearly 15 rebounds.
Franz Wagner Over 22.5 Points + Assists
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Franz Wagner returned to the lineup the other day after a brief absence and scored 22 points while adding 3 assists. He gets a good matchup against the shorthanded Warriors, and my model projects him to nearly go over this number on points alone.
