Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Noah BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Noah Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-130).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
- At just 26.94 seconds per play, the Houston Texans offense ranks as the 9th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
- With a top-tier 78.3% Route% (77th percentile) this year, Noah Brown stands as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the league.
- Noah Brown’s 55.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a substantial improvement in his receiving ability over last season’s 38.0 figure.
- This year, the weak Titans defense has conceded a staggering 181.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
