Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans may lean on the pass less in this week’s contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Davis Mills.
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
At just 26.94 seconds per play, the Houston Texans offense ranks as the 9th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a whopping 8.35 yards.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee’s group of LBs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in football.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Davis Mills to throw 33.6 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-fewest among all QBs.
With a weak 60.4% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Davis Mills places among the least accurate quarterbacks in football.
Davis Mills rates as one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging just 6.30 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 12th percentile.
This year, the imposing Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a meager 4.2 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards