Week 14 DVOA NFL Picks
Aaron Schatz
It’s do or die for most fantasy football teams right now. Even if you’re fortunate enough to be heading into the playoffs with a bye week, it’s going to be critical to set yourself up for success to close out the season. The players you are holding now need to have immediate value.
I’ll try to help everyone down this final stretch as a take a deep dive into each team’s usage numbers in the Week 14 usage report.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 14
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: James Cook Snap Rate Under 50% for 3rd Week in a Row
With Josh Allen getting not 1, not 2, but 3 rushing touchdowns against the Rams, it probably shouldn’t be too surprising to see that James Cook had a bit of an off game. For the second week in a row, he saw just 45% of the snaps (27), but even more concerning was that he got just 8 touches for 29 all-purpose yards. You’re more than likely going to have to live with Cook’s limited snaps and limited touches compared to the other top running backs in the league, but if you’re lucky enough to have depth at the RB position, sitting Cook isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane Has Highest Snap Rate of the Season
De’Von Achane ended his Week 14 seeing 83% of the snaps (60), which was, by far, his highest snap rate and snap count of the season. He got 20 touches in those 60 snaps but only put together 69 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins still have a slim chance at sneaking into the playoffs, but they’re definitely playing with a purpose, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to keep Achane’s usage at a higher than usual rate to close out the season.
New England Patriots: Bye Week
New York Jets: With Breece Hall Out, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis Split Snaps
Breece Hall was inactive for the first time this season. While most assumed Braelon Allen would just take all of Hall’s missed snaps, we surprisingly saw Isaiah Davis see 53% of the snaps (36), just one snap fewer than what Allen saw. Davis ended up having the bigger game thanks to his touchdown run, but he only got 2 fewer touches than Allen. If Hall misses additional time, I would expect Davis to continue to see a viable number of snaps to make him worthy of a roster spot.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Bye Week
Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase’s Brilliance Putting Teammates in a Tough Spot
Everyone on the field knows Joe Burrow’s No. 1 target is Ja’Marr Chase. And rightfully so considering Chase is on the verge of finishing the 2024 season as the NFL’s WR1. The problem is that it’s gotten to the point where Chase is so dominant that you’re probably needing to consider sitting a 100% healthy Tee Higgins. Higgins ended his Week 14 with just 2 catches on 5 targets for 23 yards. This may be an overreaction, but it’s hard not to feel this way considering the utter domination we saw from Chase Monday night.
Cleveland Browns: Jerome Ford Out-Touches Nick Chubb
As I’ve mentioned before, I have some major concerns about Nick Chubb, who just hasn’t been his dominant self since coming back to the lineup in Week 7. This past week against the Steelers, Jerome Ford actually outsnapped (40-26) and out-touched (13-11) Chubb. Ford also plays a much bigger part of the passing game, having caught 9 passes since the bye week, compared to only 3 for Chubb.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Williams Doesn’t Get a Big Increase in Snaps with George Pickens Out
Even though George Pickens was inactive, Mike Williams still only saw 29% of the snaps (19), which was actually less than four other Steelers receivers — Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, Calvin Austin III and Ben Skowronek. Considering Williams is still being rostered in a significant number of leagues, I must say the obvious, and that’s the fact that you need to drop Williams if he’s still on your roster.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Bye Week
Indianapolis Colts: Bye Week
Jacksonville Jaguars: Tank Bigsby Settling Back into the RB1 Spot
Tank Bigsby outsnapped Travis Etienne Jr. 53% (31) to 47% (28) in the Jaguars’ first win on U.S. soil since Week 5 against the Colts. It isn’t a coincidence that each of Jacksonville’s three wins this season featured a healthy helping of Bigsby. He ended Week 14 with 14 more carries than Etienne, with one of those carries landing him into the end zone. Bigsby is still available in over 50% of Yahoo leagues.
Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley Get More Than Half of the Touches
In a very low-scoring affair against the Jaguars, the Titans made sure Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley got a big share of touches. There was a total of 46 touches spread around for the Titans offense, and Pollard and Ridley got 30 (65%). The biggest skunk of the week was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who went without a touchdown catch for only the second time in nine weeks. The main disclaimer is the fact that Westbrook-Ikhine should be a spot play whenever necessary. He’s a great fill-in at WR3 or the flex if you’re in desperate need due to an injury, but he shouldn’t be a priority in your lineup.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Jaleel McLaughlin Gets Double-Digit Touches for First Time Since Week 1
You really can’t trust any Broncos running back considering the team’s RB1, Javonte Williams, ended his Week 14 with just 5 touches for 4 yards and a touchdown. Jaleel McLaughlin saw 6 fewer snaps than Williams, but finished with three times as many touches, and 84 impactful rushing yards. As we’ve seen with Week 10’s Audric Estime performance, we could easily see McLaughlin follow up this big performance with hardly any carries in the following weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs: Week 14 Might Have Been Turning Point for Isiah Pacheco
In his second week back from IR, Isiah Pacheco saw 46% of the snaps (32) and nearly doubled up both Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine in snap rate. With just 12 carries for 31 yards over the last two weeks of play, I would be ripping my hair out if I had Hunt on my roster. He’s nearly unplayable now with the Chiefs fighting for the AFC’s first-round bye and Pacheco’s usage on the uptick.
Las Vegas Raiders: Ameer Abdullah No Longer Getting Significant Touches
With just Sincere McCormick on the field to potentially take away touches from him, Ameer Abdullah still ended his Week 14 with just 2 touches for 4 all-purpose yards. It makes sense for McCormick to see a larger share of the touches since Abdullah is now in his ninth NFL season and someone who doesn’t really have much untapped potential to be had. McCormick is a bit of an unknown — he’s seven years younger than Abdullah and has impressed in limited playing time.
Los Angeles Chargers: Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston Gobbled Up Targets in Ladd McConkey’s Absence
The Chargers were very short-handed against the Chiefs, having to play their first game this season without both J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey and then losing Will Dissly early in the game. As the game progressed, it was clear that both Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer would shoulder the majority of the targets that would normally go to McConkey. Both Johnston and Palmer combined for 11 catches on 12 catchable targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. It was a nice redemption game for Johnston, who has been coming off a couple rough game. As for Palmer, it was by far his best game of the season. In a year where his expectations were super high due to the loss of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, it has been marred by disappointment. Palmer also led the receivers with his 87% snap rate (52). If you’re in need of a receiver in a deeper league, I consider Palmer worthy of a flier.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Rico Dowdle Has Highest Snap Rate of the Season
Rico Dowdle saw 77% of the snaps (46), surprisingly his highest snap rate of the season. The extra playing time has also coincided with an increase in touches. He has received at least 18 carries in each of his last three games and has rewarded head coach Mike McCarthy with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. He is someone who has been a week-to-week type of play throughout the season, but at this point, unless something drastic happens, he appears to be as safe of a play as anyone at the RB position.
New York Giants: No Reason to Roster Any Giants RB Not Named Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. finished Week 14 with his highest snap rate of the season. He saw 83% of the snaps (65) and got 21 touches in those snaps, for 83 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Eric Gray didn’t receive any snaps, while Devin Singletary saw a season-low 18% of the snaps (14). At this point, there’s really no reason to roster any Giants RB that’s not named Tracy.
Philadelphia Eagles: Grant Calcaterra Continues to Be a Compelling Play When Dallas Goedert Is Out
With Dallas Goedert sitting out due to a knee injury, the Eagles rolled out Grant Calcaterra as their TE in 91% of the snaps (53). He continues to make an impact whenever Goedert has been inactive. This past week, he caught all three of his targets for 16 yards and a touchdown. It might not be an ideal play, but you have to give him some consideration if you’re in a spot where you’re streaming tight ends and Goedert happens to be inactive.
Washington Commanders: Bye Week
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet Completely Ignored by Caleb Williams
Cole Kmet saw 92% of the snaps (49) and tied for the team lead in routes ran with DJ Moore (30). Unfortunately, he ended his Sunday afternoon with zero targets. He has seen 3 or fewer targets in more than half of his games this season. He has had a couple big games that have hooked many fantasy players this season, but the lows are just so low that you probably should just leave rostering Kmet solely for your DFS GPP lineups.
Detroit Lions: Yes, Tim Patrick Might Be Worth an Add
The Lions are dealing with some significant injuries, but almost all of them are on their defense. It says a lot that Tim Patrick was able to lead the team in catches and catchable targets in such a big game against the Packers. He clearly has earned Jared Goff’s trust, and his two touchdown grabs could be a sign of bigger things to come to finish the season. Patrick may be worthy of an add if you need some additional depth at WR.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson’s Snap Rates Have Found Some Stability
Christian Watson’s snap rates have passed the 90% mark in back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 12 and 13 of the 2022 season. In a crowded receiver room, Watson has struggled to find much stability over the last couple seasons but was the one bright note against the Lions on a night where Jordan Love struggled to do much of anything in the passing game. While it’s certainly going to be difficult to sit Watson if he’s on your roster, you might still need to show caution considering Romeo Doubs’ return is looming, and Watson’s increased snap rate has coincided with Doubs’ absence.
Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison Out-Targets Justin Jefferson for 2nd Time in 3 Weeks
Jordan Addison had a monster of a game against the Falcons. He ended his day catching all 8 of his catchable targets for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is the second time he has out-targeted Justin Jefferson in three weeks. The turning point of Addison’s season may have very well been T.J. Hockenson’s return to the lineup. The trio of Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson might just be the best receiving trio in the entire NFL, and it is creating a nightmare for opposing defenses to handle. While Addison has been a week-to-week play for most of the season, it’s pretty clear that’s he’s now close to a must play given the circumstances.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Ray-Ray McCloud Leads Team in Catchable Targets for First Time This Season
It’s not really ideal to be a Falcons receiver at the moment, but it’s still worth noting that Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in catchable targets for the first time this season. McCloud actually leads the team in snaps from the slot and has outperformed Kyle Pitts in four of the last five weeks. You could do far worse than McCloud if you’re still looking for help at the WR position.
Carolina Panthers: Adam Thielen Still Outsnapped by Xavier Legette and David Moore
Adam Thielen caught 9 of Bryce Young’s 15 completed passes against the Eagles. The only concern here is the fact that Xavier Legette and David Moore still was able to outsnap Thielen. When Jalen Coker returns to the lineup, it might be assumed that he’ll take away some of Thielen’s snaps and targets, but I believe it makes more sense for those snaps and targets to be taken away from Moore rather than Thielen.
New Orleans Saints: Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson Lead Pass-Catchers in Snaps
Both Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson saw 72% of the snaps (49) against the Giants. Those 49 snaps were enough to outsnap any Saints receiver, including WR1-by-default Marquez Valdes-Scantling While Moreau still isn’t worthy of a fantasy roster spot, Johnson might be worth grabbing. Over his last three games, he has caught 12 balls for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan Might Be Here to Stay
Baker Mayfield was really able to spread the ball out to all of his receivers. Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan each caught 4 balls on 5 catchable targets, but in McMillan’s case, he did end the game with 2 big touchdown catches. McMillan has seen either the most or second-most snaps from the WR position since Evans made his return in Week 12. I consider McMillan among the very best waiver wire pickups right now. I would go out of my way to add him to my roster if he’s still available.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. See All of Kyler Murray’s End Zone Targets
Leading up to Week 14, it has been a bit alarming to know that Trey McBride had seen just four end zone targets all season. Week 14 could have been a sign of things to come with McBride actually leading the team with 3 end zone targets in the Cardinals defeat to the Seahawks. All 5 of Kyler Murray’s end zone targets went to McBride and Harrison.
Los Angeles Rams: Passing Attack Is All About Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp
Matthew Stafford finished his upset win against the Bills with 23 completed passes. Seventeen (74%) went to either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp. At this point, Demarcus Robinson has been more touchdown dependent than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and, because of that, is probably worthy of a drop if there’s someone else out on waivers that can help your team with more consistency.
San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Taylor Jr. Might Be a Viable Hail Mary at RB
Like all of the running backs before him, Isaac Guerendo is dealing with an injury. In Guerendo’s case, he may have suffered a foot injury. It doesn’t appear to be too serious, but even so, it looks like Patrick Taylor Jr. will continue to have a role in the 49ers run game, and given the circumstances, is absolutely someone you should consider adding to your team if you’re in desperate need for help at the RB position. While Guerendo got all of the praise with his 2-touchdown performance, it’s certainly worth noting that Taylor saw 33% of the snaps (20) and finished with 7 carries for 25 yards and a touchdown. Considering Guerendo is going to have value moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised ff Taylor sees an uptick in usage to close out the season.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet Has Huge Performance in Kenneth Walker III’s Absence
Zach Charbonnet got his third start of the season Sunday due to another injury setback from Kenneth Walker III. In turn, Charbonnet put together a gigantic performance where he took 29 touches for 193 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns. I would use plenty of caution with Charbonnet if and when Walker is back in the lineup. He simply has not been fantasy viable with Walker in uniform, and I wouldn’t expect that to change just because of one big game with Walker in street clothes.
